Navigating the Global Housing Affordability Crisis: High-Growth Real Estate Opportunities in Moderately Unaffordable Markets

The 2025 Demographia International Housing Affordability report has delivered a sobering verdict: for the first time in 21 years, no global housing market is deemed "affordable" under the standard median multiple metric (3.0 or below). Cities like Hong Kong (14.4), Sydney (13.8), and San Jose (12.1) now epitomize the "impossibly unaffordable" category, while even traditionally stable markets like Vancouver and Los Angeles hover near the edge of crisis. This systemic breakdown in affordability is not just a housing issue—it is a crisis of urban planning, policy design, and economic equity.

Yet amid this gloom, a strategic opportunity emerges. While no market is truly "affordable," a subset of cities falls into the "moderately unaffordable" range (median multiples of 3.1–4.0), offering a rare window for investors to capitalize on resilience, growth, and policy-driven corrections. These markets, often overlooked in favor of flashier but overpriced hubs, represent a counterbalance to the global affordability crisis.

The Global Affordability Crisis: A Policy-Driven Predicament

The report attributes the crisis to restrictive land-use policies—urban growth boundaries, greenbelts, and zoning laws that limit housing supply while inflating prices. These policies, often justified as tools for sustainability or quality of life, have instead created artificial scarcity. For example, Vancouver's 11.8 median multiple reflects not just demand but a deliberate capping of land availability. Similarly, San Francisco's 10.0 multiple is a product of NIMBYism (Not In My Backyard) and regulatory inertia.

The consequences are dire: middle-income homeownership is collapsing, counterurbanization is accelerating, and economic mobility is eroding. For investors, this means avoiding markets where demand is outpacing supply at unsustainable rates. Instead, the focus should shift to markets with balanced fundamentals—those where job growth, housing supply, and policy reforms align to create long-term value.

High-Growth Affordable Markets: The Strategic Counterbalance

The 2025 report identifies several "moderately unaffordable" markets that, despite their challenges, offer compelling investment potential. These markets are not just affordable relative to global peers—they are resilient, growing, and policy-friendly.

1. Omaha, Nebraska: The Hottest Housing Market

Omahas' 76.2 score on the U.S. News Housing Market Index in 2025 is no accident. The city has leveraged Sanitary and Improvement Districts (SIDs) to streamline infrastructure development, reducing costs for builders and increasing housing supply. With a median home price of $304,000 (vs. $419,000 nationally) and a 4.8% annual growth rate, Omaha's 3.2 median multiple makes it the most attractive U.S. market for investors.

• Key Drivers:
• Job Growth: 12,000 nonfarm jobs added in 2024, led by education and healthcare.
• Supply-Demand Balance: A 2.2 months-of-supply index (vs. 3.6 nationally) and a surge in multifamily construction.
• Affordability: Rents are 30% below the national average, with a 5.6% vacancy rate.

2. Austin, Texas: Tech-Driven Resilience

Austin's 72.3 HMI reflects its status as a tech boomtown. While median prices are rising, the city's 3.5 median multiple remains significantly lower than coastal peers. The influx of remote workers and startups has spurred construction, but zoning reforms are still lagging—making Austin a high-growth market with room for correction.

• Investment Edge:
• Diversified Economy: Strong in IT, healthcare, and logistics.
• Population Growth: A 2.1% annual increase, driven by job migration.

3. Houston: Energy and Stability

Houston's 72.1 HMI underscores its role as a stable, diversified market. A median multiple of 3.8 is modest compared to global averages, and the city's energy sector provides a buffer against economic shocks. With a 2.8% unemployment rate and a 3.4 months-of-supply index, Houston offers a balanced risk-reward profile.

• Key Attraction:
• Business-Friendly Policies: Pro-development zoning and tax incentives.
• Affordability: Median prices remain 15% below the national average.

4. Charleston, South Carolina: Charm Meets Growth

Charleston's 71.6 HMI highlights its appeal as a tourist and tech hub. Historic neighborhoods coexist with new construction, and the city's 3.6 median multiple is bolstered by a 4.5% job growth rate in hospitality and healthcare.

• Investment Potential:
• Tourism-Driven Demand: Short-term rentals and vacation homes are thriving.
• Urban Development: A 1.8 months-of-supply index indicates strong demand.

Policy-Driven Opportunities: The Roadmap for Reform

The report emphasizes that urban planning reforms—such as New Zealand's liberalization of land supply and U.S. cities' gradual zoning relaxations—can unlock affordability. Investors should prioritize markets where such reforms are underway. For example, Denver's 71.5 HMI is partly due to recent multifamily construction incentives, while St. Louis and Richmond show early signs of policy-driven recovery.

Conclusion: Rebalancing the Global Housing Portfolio

The 2025 report is a wake-up call: housing unaffordability is no longer a regional issue but a global systemic crisis. Yet, it also highlights a path forward. By focusing on moderately unaffordable markets with strong fundamentals and policy momentum—Omaha, Austin, Houston, Charleston, and others—investors can hedge against the volatility of overpriced cities while tapping into growth.

The key is to act before these markets reach the tipping point of speculative bubbles. As urban containment policies face increasing scrutiny, the next decade will likely see a shift toward human-centered planning. For now, the data is clear: resilience, not price, defines the future of real estate.

For investors, the message is straightforward: diversify into markets where affordability is relative, growth is sustainable, and policy is evolving. The crisis in unaffordable cities is not a dead end—it's a signal to rethink where value truly lies.