NatWest Group Skyrockets 4.05%—Is This the Start of a Bullish Breakout?

Summary
• NatWest Group (NWG) surges 3.54% intraday, trading at $14.0501 as of 16:13 ET
• Shares hit a 52-week high of $14.5516, with today’s intraday range from $13.84 to $14.075
• Company upgrades full-year profit guidance, raises interim dividend 58%, and announces £750m buyback
• RSI trends upward, MACD signals bullish crossover, and Bollinger Bands suggest near-term resistance

NatWest Group’s 4.05% intraday surge has ignited market attention, fueled by a combination of upgraded earnings forecasts, a record dividend increase, and a substantial share buyback. The stock’s sharp rally has pushed it within striking distance of its 52-week high, while technical indicators and options activity suggest the momentum could extend. With the broader banking sector showing muted gains, NWG’s outperformance highlights its strategic pivot toward profitability and shareholder returns.

Profit Guidance, Dividend Hikes, and Buybacks Fuel NWG’s Rally
NatWest Group’s 3.54% intraday surge is directly tied to its upgraded full-year profit guidance and a 58% increase in its interim dividend. The bank reported a 28% rise in first-half attributable profit to £2.5 billion, driven by strong growth in lending, deposits, and customer numbers. The interim dividend hike to 9.5p per share and a £750 million share buyback signal management’s confidence in future earnings. Shore Capital noted that while consensus had partially anticipated these upgrades, the second-quarter results still exceeded expectations on income, costs, and impairments, prompting the profit guidance revision and a raised return on tangible equity target to above 16.5%.

Leveraged Options and Technical Setup for NWG Bulls
• RSI: 52.91 (neutral, trending upward)
• MACD: -0.0587 (bullish crossover near zero)
• Bollinger Bands: Current price at 14.05 (near upper band of 14.13)
• 200D MA: 11.6366 (far below current price)
• Support/Resistance: 30D support at 13.256, 200D support at 9.9492

NatWest Group’s technical profile is primed for a breakout. The stock has pierced the Bollinger Upper Band and is trading near its 52-week high, with the 200-day moving average acting as a distant floor. Aggressive bulls should focus on NWG20250815C15 (Call, 15 strike, 2025-08-15) for short-term leverage, while long-term buyers can target NWG20251121C15 for a balanced entry.

NWG20250815C15:
• IV: 28.82% (moderate)
• Leverage Ratio: 140.55% (high)
• Delta: 0.188955 (moderate sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.006490 (moderate time decay)
• Gamma: 0.271676 (high sensitivity to price movement)
• Turnover: 315 (liquid)
• Payoff (5% upside to $14.75): $0.75 per share. This call benefits from high leverage and gamma, ideal for a continued bullish move.

NWG20251121C15:
• IV: 25.24% (moderate)
• Leverage Ratio: 31.23% (moderate)
• Delta: 0.352472 (moderate sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.003154 (lower time decay)
• Gamma: 0.181038 (moderate sensitivity to price movement)
• Turnover: 2305 (highly liquid)
• Payoff (5% upside to $14.75): $0.75 per share. This call offers a balance of liquidity and leverage for a mid-term bullish stance.

Act now: If $14.13 breaks, NWG20250815C15 offers short-side potential for aggressive positioning.

Backtest Natwest Group Stock Performance
The backtest of NWG's performance after an intraday percentage change greater than 4% shows favorable short-to-medium-term gains, highlighting the stock's potential for positive movement following strong price days. The backtest results indicate that NWG has a high win rate and return potential, making it a stock worth considering for traders looking to capitalize on intraday volatility.

Break the 14.13 Barrier—The Path to 14.55 Is Clear
NatWest Group’s 4.05% intraday rally is a testament to its strategic repositioning and capital return initiatives. The stock’s technical setup and options activity suggest a high probability of breaking above the 14.13 Bollinger Upper Band, with the 52-week high of 14.5516 as the next target. Investors should prioritize NWG20250815C15 for immediate leverage and monitor the sector leader JPMorgan Chase (JPM), which currently holds a 0.547% intraday gain. A confirmed breakout above 14.13 will validate the bullish thesis, making this a critical juncture for NWG bulls to act decisively.