NatWest Group Shares Rally 7.34% on Golden Cross and Overbought RSI Amid Bullish Momentum

Candlestick Theory
NatWest Group (NWG) has exhibited a strong bullish bias in recent candlestick patterns, with a 4.04% gain on the most recent session and a 7.34% rally over three days. The formation of higher highs (e.g., 16.52 on Nov 12) and lower lows (e.g., 14.86 on Nov 20) suggests a consolidating uptrend. Key support levels emerge around 14.86 (Nov 20 low) and 15.23 (Nov 21 low), while resistance is clustered near 15.52 (Nov 17 high) and 16.22 (Nov 13 high). A potential bearish divergence in the 16.22–16.52 range could signal overbought conditions, but the recent bullish momentum suggests continuation above 15.95.
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Moving Average Theory
The 50-day moving average (currently ~14.7–14.8) has crossed above the 200-day line (~13.9–14.0), forming a golden cross, which historically signals bullish momentum. The 100-day average (~14.5) aligns with the 50-day, reinforcing the uptrend. Price remains above the 200-day line, indicating a long-term bullish bias, while the 50-day acting as dynamic support near 15.23–15.33 suggests short-term strength. Divergence between the 50-day and price could emerge if the 200-day fails to keep pace with the rally, but confluence with candlestick and volume data supports continuation.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram has expanded positively, with the line (15.9–16.0) above the signal line (15.6–15.7), confirming bullish momentum. The KDJ oscillator shows stochastic overbought conditions (K ~85, D ~75), but no immediate reversal divergence in price action. The RSI (~70–75) corroborates overbought territory, suggesting a potential pullback to the 15.23–15.33 range. However, confluence with moving averages and volume trends implies this overbought condition may persist, with a bearish crossover in MACD or KDJ signaling caution.
Bollinger Bands
Volatility has expanded as the price approaches the upper band (~16.0–16.2), reflecting heightened buying pressure. The 20-period Bollinger Band width is at a 6-month high, indicating a potential breakout or consolidation phase. A retest of the lower band (~14.8–15.0) could trigger a rebound, but the recent sharp move suggests the upper band remains a critical level to monitor for trend exhaustion.
Volume-Price Relationship
Trading volume has spiked during the 7.34% rally, with the Nov 25 session showing a 2.27 million-volume bar, validating the price surge. However, volume has moderated slightly in the last two sessions, which may indicate waning momentum. A sustained increase in volume during a pullback would confirm renewed buying interest, while a volume contraction could signal distribution. The current volume profile supports the bullish case but warrants monitoring for divergences.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (75–80) indicates overbought territory, aligning with the MACD and KDJ readings. While this warns of a potential correction, the absence of bearish divergence (e.g., lower highs in RSI despite higher price) suggests the uptrend may persist. A drop below 50 would signal weakening momentum, but the RSI’s confluence with Fibonacci retracement levels (see below) increases the likelihood of a bounce from 15.23–15.33.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci to the key 10.14 (Dec 2024 low) to 16.52 (Nov 2025 high) move, the 61.8% retracement level (~13.77) has held as dynamic support. The current price near 15.95 sits above the 23.6% level (~15.13), suggesting a continuation of the uptrend. A breakdown below 15.23 would target the 38.2% level (~14.60), but confluence with moving averages and volume trends favors a rebound above 15.52.
Conclusions and Divergences
The technical landscape for NatWest Group highlights strong confluence between candlestick patterns, moving averages, and volume, all supporting a bullish bias. However, overbought conditions in the RSI and KDJ, combined with moderate volume during the recent rally, introduce caution. A divergence between price and momentum oscillators (e.g., RSI failing to make higher highs despite rising price) would signal a potential reversal. Key watchpoints include the 15.23 support and 15.52 resistance, with Fibonacci levels providing a probabilistic framework for trend continuation or correction.