NATO Allies Agree to Boost Defense Spending to 5% of GDP by 2035

NATO leaders have agreed to increase their defense spending goals to 5% of their gross domestic product (GDP) by 2035, a significant hike from the previous 2% commitment. This decision comes as an attempt to satisfy President Donald Trump, who has long advocated for increased spending from NATO allies. The new target includes 3.5% of GDP for "core" defense and 1.5% for security-related investments, such as infrastructure and resilience.

Experts, however, are skeptical about the feasibility of this target for all member countries. Liana Fix, a fellow for Europe at the Council on Foreign Relations, described the 5% target as "just crazy for Europeans," noting that most European countries have not spent 5% of their GDP on defense even during the Cold War. She expects that the leaders will provide more details on what constitutes the additional 1.5% of GDP during the NATO summit.

Jan Techau, Europe Director at Eurasia Group, agrees that the agreement is not a one-size-fits-all solution. He points out that while some countries may meet the target, others may struggle due to varying economic conditions and political will.

The agreement is seen by some as a political move to appease Trump and reinforce the alliance amid geopolitical turmoil. Trump himself has questioned a core principle of the NATO alliance, refusing to commit to Article 5, which stipulates that an attack on one member is an attack on all.

While some countries, such as Germany and Poland, are committed to meeting the new target, others like Spain and the UK face significant fiscal challenges. Spain's Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez has pushed back on the deal, stating that Madrid would not have to meet the 5% target. The UK, meanwhile, is "fiscally challenged" to reach this goal, according to Bruegel Senior Fellow Jacob Funk Kirkegaard.

Despite the challenges, European countries are looking for solutions to potential threats from the region. Kirkegaard subscribes to European intelligence estimates that Russia would begin preparing for a broader war against one or more NATO members if the Ukraine-Russia war were to end. This underscores the need for increased defense spending, but also highlights the economic and political hurdles that some countries may face in meeting the new target.