National Steel Outlook: Weak Technicals and Pessimistic Market Sentiment

Market SnapshotTakeaway: National Steel (SID.N) faces a weak technical outlook with a low internal diagnostic score of 2.94, suggesting investors should avoid the stock at this time.

News Highlights

Recent news signals turbulence in the steel sector. On May 31, the European Union expressed strong regret over U.S. President Donald Trump's plan to double steel and aluminum tariffs from 25% to 50%. This could intensify trade tensions and impact steel demand globally. Meanwhile, Trump announced the move as a means to protect the domestic steel industry, though it risks disrupting ongoing trade negotiations.

The metals sector also saw multiple companies closing private placements, such as Galway Metals, Integral Metals, and CopAur Minerals, highlighting ongoing capital-raising activity amid industry uncertainty.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

The average analyst rating for National Steel stands at a simple mean of 1.00, while the performance-weighted rating is 0.55. This indicates a high degree of pessimism among analysts. UBS analyst Caio Greiner recently issued a "Strong Sell" rating, aligning with a 50% historical win rate and a 4.03% average return on past predictions.

Despite the weak analyst sentiment, the stock's price has risen 1.24% in recent trading, indicating a mismatch between price trend and market expectations.

Key fundamental factors include: ROE (diluted): -6.52% (Internal diagnostic score: 0.00) Net income to revenue: 2.14% (Internal diagnostic score: 1.00) Profit to market value: 2.13% (Internal diagnostic score: 1.00) Asset to market value: 9.36% (Internal diagnostic score: 3.00) Current assets turnover ratio: 0.92x (Internal diagnostic score: 0.00) Return on cash: 2.03% (internal diagnostic score: 2.00)

These figures suggest weak profitability and asset efficiency, though asset value remains relatively strong.

Money-Flow Trends

Fund-flow analysis shows mixed signals. While small investors are showing a positive trend, with a small inflow ratio of 0.52, larger institutional investors are pulling back. The large inflow ratio is 0.49, and the extra-large inflow ratio is 0.48. The overall trend is negative, indicating that big money is moving out of the stock.

With a fund-flow score of 7.68 and a rating of "good," the stock shows some retail support, but the block and institutional outflows signal caution among larger investors.

Key Technical Signals

The technical outlook for National Steel is bearish, with a low internal diagnostic score of 2.94 and 4 bearish indicators versus 0 bullish ones. Key signals include: Shooting Star: Score of 1.00 (internal diagnostic score). This pattern typically signals a potential top in an uptrend. Marubozu White: Score of 2.17 (internal diagnostic score). A long white candle with no shadow, suggesting a strong bullish move—but here, it appears in a bearish context. WR Overbought: Score of 1.16 (internal diagnostic score). Indicates a potential pullback after overbought conditions. WR Oversold: Score of 6.40 (internal diagnostic score). A positive signal, but it's neutral in this case due to conflicting patterns.

Recent chart patterns include a "Shooting Star" and "Marubozu White" on December 10, 2025, suggesting a possible top or reversal. Overbought conditions were flagged on December 11 and 12, 2025, reinforcing the risk of a price decline.

Overall, the technical signal suggests a weak trend with high bearish momentum.

Conclusion

Investors should consider avoiding National Steel (SID.N) at this time due to weak technical indicators, bearish market sentiment, and poor institutional money flow. While the stock has seen some short-term price gains, the broader signals point to a high risk of decline. Watch for developments in trade policy and earnings reports for potential turning points in the stock’s performance.