National Grid Shares Surge 3.50% On Bullish Breakout With Strong Volume Support

National Grid (NGG) shares rose 3.50% in the most recent session (2025-06-23), closing at 73.34 after trading between 71.74 and 73.405 on above-average volume, suggesting bullish conviction breached a significant resistance level.
Candlestick Theory
The recent sharp bullish candle on 2025-06-23, closing near its high after several indecisive sessions near 71.00, strongly resembles a bullish breakout pattern. It decisively overcame the resistance zone previously established around 72.80-73.40 (seen on 2025-06-12, 2025-06-13, and 2025-05-23). This level now transforms into crucial support. Key historical support resides near the 68.00 level (tested multiple times in May and early June). Prior formation of bearish engulfing patterns near the 74.00 high (late May) marked that peak, suggesting 74.00-74.70 as the next major resistance.
Moving Average Theory
A bullish alignment dominates the moving averages. The price currently trades firmly above all three key moving averages (50-day ~69.50, 100-day ~67.80, 200-day ~65.00). Crucially, the shorter-term 50-day MA crossed decisively above the 100-day MA in early June, reinforcing a bullish medium-term trend signal. This "golden cross" of the 50/100-day MAs provides a confluence of support near 70.00 and suggests the primary uptrend from the April 2025 low remains intact. The long-term 200-day MA continues its steady ascent, confirming the overarching bullish bias.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram (calculated based on 12-day, 26-day EMAs and 9-day signal) recently crossed into positive territory above its signal line, confirming renewed bullish momentum following the breakout. The KDJ oscillator, particularly the %K and %D lines, are rising after recovering from near oversold territory (around 20) in late May. Currently hovering in neutral ground (around 60-65), the KDJ lacks immediate overbought signals but suggests there is room for further upside. The recent MACD crossover and rising KDJ support the bullish price action witnessed on 2025-06-23.
Bollinger Bands
Price action sits near the upper Bollinger Band (approximately 73.60), indicating relative strength and a potential continuation signal. A significant contraction in the bands occurred in the first half of June around the 71.00 level, suggesting lowered volatility and accumulation preceding the powerful breakout. This breakout, accompanied by band expansion, validates the breakout's strength and points to sustained directional momentum. Support now shifts to the middle Bollinger Band (20-day SMA, currently near 71.00) and the lower band (near 68.40).
Volume-Price Relationship
The breakout move on 2025-06-23 featured volume notably higher than the preceding 5-10 sessions, lending strong credibility to the price surge and suggesting solid buyer conviction. This is a key positive divergence compared to the failed breakout attempts in late May/early June (e.g., 2025-06-12 and 2025-05-23), which often occurred on lower or inconsistent volume. Sustained or increasing volume on further advances will be critical for confirming the trend's strength. Volume profiles highlight significant activity around the 68.00 level, reinforcing its role as strong support.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI currently sits around 61, climbing from the low 40s in late May but still comfortably below the overbought threshold of 70. This positioning suggests momentum is building positively without immediate overextended conditions. Previous instances where the RSI touched or exceeded 70 (mid-May, early April) often preceded minor pullbacks, though it remained below 70 during the sustained advance from April through late May. The current RSI trajectory aligns with the renewed uptrend and indicates room for further price appreciation before reaching traditional warning levels, barring any negative divergence formation.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the significant upward move from the April 2025 low near 60.05 to the peak near 74.79 provides key technical levels. The 38.2% retracement level near 70.30 proved pivotal during the May/June pullback, acting as robust support (evidenced by lows on 2025-06-09 and 2025-06-16). This level converges significantly with the cluster of moving averages. The 23.6% level near 72.10 was breached on the recent breakout, flipping it into support. The clear hold above the 38.2% Fib reinforces the uptrend. A retest of the 61.8% level near 68.30 seems increasingly unlikely unless significant bearish catalysts emerge, given the strong support established above 70.30. The next major upside target becomes the 127.2% extension level near 77.00.
Conclusion
The technical picture for National Grid appears strongly bullish near-term. The confirmed breakout above the 73.40 resistance on high volume, supported by bullish MA alignment (including the 50/100-day golden cross), the positive MACD crossover, a well-positioned RSI, and affirmation by Bollinger Bands and Fib levels, creates significant technical confluence. Key support is now firmly established at the 72.10-73.40 zone (recent resistance, 23.6% Fib, middle Bollinger Band) with stronger support near 70.30 (38.2% Fib, MA cluster). The primary risk is failure to hold the breakout zone, potentially leading to a retest of 70.30-70.00. Sustained volume on advances towards the next resistance near 74.70-75.00 will be critical for maintaining bullish momentum. Divergence remains minimal, with price confirmed by momentum indicators and volume on the decisive breakout move.