National Fuel Gas: The Energy Stock to Watch in 2025?

National Fuel Gas (NFG) has been making waves in the energy sector so far in 2025, with its strong performance catching the attention of investors. But is NFG truly the best performing energy stock of the year? Let's delve into the data and expert insights to find out.



NFG's stock price has surged by approximately 25.5% over the past six months, outpacing the average growth of energy stocks in the sector. This impressive performance can be attributed to several factors, including the company's robust regulated segment performance, the strength of its E&P segment, and its commitment to returning value to shareholders through stock repurchases.

NFG's regulated segments, including Pipeline & Storage and Utility, have contributed significantly to its strong performance. The Pipeline & Storage segment's net income increased by $8.4 million (35%) compared to the prior year, primarily due to the settlement of the Supply Corporation rate case, which led to increased rates effective February 1, 2024. The Utility segment's net income increased by $5.9 million (22%) driven by a three-year settlement of a rate proceeding in the Company's New York jurisdiction, which led to increased rates starting October 1, 2024. These improvements in regulated segments are expected to continue, as NFG anticipates 7% to 10% earnings growth over the next three years (Barchart, 2025).

NFG's E&P segment has also played a crucial role in the company's strong performance. The segment's adjusted operating results increased by $2.6 million (5%) compared to the prior year, supported by hedging-related gains. These gains more than offset the $0.08 per MMBtu decrease in the weighted average natural gas price compared to the prior year. NFG's integrated upstream and gathering operations in the Eastern Development Area (EDA) have exceeded expectations, positioning the company to deliver strong results in the coming years (National Fuel, 2025).



NFG's commitment to returning value to shareholders through stock repurchases has also contributed to its strong performance. The company repurchased $34 million of common stock during the quarter, bringing the total amount repurchased to $99 million (1.7 million shares) under the $200 million share buyback program authorized in March 2024. This demonstrates NFG's confidence in its future prospects and its commitment to maximizing shareholder value.



NFG's increased guidance for fiscal 2025 adjusted earnings per share, now expected to be within a range of $6.50 to $7.00, further supports the company's strong performance and growth prospects. This updated range incorporates better than expected results in the first quarter along with the anticipated impact of higher natural gas prices and higher production in the E&P segment for the remainder of the fiscal year. The company is now assuming NYMEX natural gas prices will average $3.50 per MMBtu for the remaining nine months of fiscal 2025, an increase of $0.70 from the $2.80 per MMBtu assumed in previous guidance (National Fuel, 2025).



In conclusion, National Fuel Gas' strong performance in the energy sector so far in 2025 can be attributed to its robust regulated segment performance, the strength of its E&P segment, and its commitment to returning value to shareholders through stock repurchases. While NFG's impressive growth and dividend yield make it an attractive investment option, it is essential to consider the company's risk profile and the broader energy market dynamics before making a decision. As the energy sector continues to evolve, NFG's ability to adapt and capitalize on new opportunities will be crucial for its long-term success.