National Fuel Gas Company: The Rocket Fuel Behind Its 2025 Surge

National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) has been on a remarkable trajectory in 2025, with its stock price soaring despite the challenges faced by the broader energy sector. The company's impressive performance can be attributed to several strategic moves and favorable market conditions. Let's delve into the key factors driving NFG's stock price surge in 2025.

1. Improved Natural Gas Prices: NFG has benefited significantly from the rise in natural gas prices. The company has increased its fiscal 2025 adjusted earnings per share guidance to a range of $6.50 to $7.00, reflecting expectations of higher natural gas prices. The company is now assuming NYMEX natural gas prices will average $3.50 per MMBtu for the remaining nine months of fiscal 2025, an increase of $0.70 from the $2.80 per MMBtu assumed in previous guidance. This updated natural gas price projection approximates the current NYMEX forward curve at this time.

2. Successful Rate Case Settlements: NFG's regulated segments have contributed to the company's earnings growth through successful rate case settlements. The recent approval of a rate case settlement in the New York utility jurisdiction, combined with ongoing benefits from ratemaking activity in the Pennsylvania utility territory and at Supply Corporation, has given the company confidence in its 7% to 10% earnings growth projections over the next three years. This strategic move has significantly boosted NFG's earnings and, consequently, its stock price.

3. Operational Efficiency and Capital Efficiency Improvements: The company's integrated upstream and gathering operations in the Eastern Development Area (EDA) have exceeded expectations, with strong operational execution and highly-prolific assets driving capital efficiency improvements. This has resulted in a 2% increase in production guidance while reducing capital expenditure by $5 million, demonstrating superior operational execution. These operational improvements have not only enhanced NFG's earnings but also positioned the company for future growth.

4. Share Repurchases: NFG has completed $99 million of its $200 million authorized share repurchase program, creating a compelling shareholder return proposition. This strategic move has helped to boost the company's stock price by reducing the number of outstanding shares and increasing earnings per share.



5. Hedging Strategy: NFG's hedging strategy has provided significant downside protection while maintaining upside exposure. As of the first quarter of fiscal 2025, 71% of the remaining production for the year is either hedged or fixed-price contracted. This strategic move has helped the company mitigate the impact of volatile natural gas prices, ensuring consistent earnings and shareholder value.

In conclusion, National Fuel Gas Company's stock price surge in 2025 can be attributed to a combination of strategic moves, favorable market conditions, and operational improvements. The company's focus on rate case settlements, operational efficiency, share repurchases, and hedging strategies has positioned it for continued growth and success in the energy sector. As investors seek opportunities in the energy sector, NFG's impressive performance in 2025 serves as a testament to the company's strategic vision and execution.