Natera Plunges 4.5% As Bearish Technicals Eclipse Key Support Levels

Natera (NTRA) declined 4.49% in the most recent trading session, closing at $164.16 on elevated volume. This analysis examines key technical indicators to assess potential price direction.
Candlestick Theory
Natera's price action reveals a bearish reversal pattern. The June 18th bullish engulfing candle ($166.72-$172.73) failed to sustain momentum, culminating in a decisive bearish Marubozu on June 25th (open near high $172.82, close near low $164.16). This suggests strong selling pressure. Key support emerges at the May consolidation zone ($152-$157), while resistance is established at the June peak of $173.50. The breakdown below the $167 psychological level invalidates the prior uptrend structure.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day SMA ($159.80) remains above the 100-day ($152.40) and 200-day ($142.60), preserving the longer-term uptrend. However, the recent close below the 50-day SMA and narrowing gap between the 50-day and 100-day SMAs indicate weakening near-term momentum. A sustained break below the 100-day SMA would signal potential trend reversal confirmation.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD (12,26,9) histogram turned negative in late June as the signal line crossed below the MACD line, reflecting increasing bearish momentum. Concurrently, the KDJ oscillator (14,3,3) shows K-line (28) and D-line (35) plunging below 30 into oversold territory, though without bullish crossover divergence. While oversold KDJ suggests possible short-term relief, bearish MACD alignment indicates unresolved downward pressure.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands (20-day, 2σ) contracted notably in mid-June (bandwidth narrowed to 5%), preceding the breakdown below the 20-day SMA ($168.30) on June 25th. The close near the lower band ($160.10) confirms elevated bearish momentum. Continued trading near the lower band would signal persistent weakness, while a move toward the middle band may indicate consolidation.
Volume-Price Relationship
The bearish June 25th session occurred on 2.47M shares – 164% above the 30-day average volume – confirming distribution. Notably, the June 4th rally to $169.43 occurred on below-average volume (1.33M shares), undermining its legitimacy. Volume patterns consistently validate downward moves more robustly than recoveries, suggesting weak accumulation interest near current levels.
Relative Strength Index
The 14-day RSI (40) breached its 55-week average and is accelerating downward, though not yet oversold. Momentum divergence occurred in early June when price reached $173.50 (RSI 68) versus the February peak of $183 (RSI 82), demonstrating weakening buying pressure. While not yet at oversold thresholds, the RSI slope indicates bearish momentum dominance.
Fibonacci Retracement
Using the October 2024 low ($97.91) and March 2025 high ($183) as anchor points, key Fibonacci levels emerge. The current price sits below the 23.6% retracement ($166.50), with critical support at the 38.2% level ($157.30) aligning with the 100-day SMA. A breach below $157.30 would target the 50% retracement ($151.80), where the 200-day SMA and March consolidation provide technical confluence.
Confluence & Divergences
Confluence exists at $157-$152 support, combining the 38.2%-50% Fibonacci zone, 100/200-day SMAs, and March swing highs. Bullish divergence remains absent between price and oscillators (MACD/KDJ/RSI), synchronizing bearish momentum signals. However, the KDJ's oversold reading and volume exhaustion on June 25th warn against chasing immediate downside. The primary technical narrative favors bearish continuation unless recovery above $167 occurs with expanding volume.