Natera Jumps 5.36% On Bullish Technical Breakout Above Key Moving Averages

Natera (NTRA) advanced 5.36% in the latest session, closing at $176.37 with a trading range of $167.35–$176.56 on elevated volume of 1.30 million shares. This notable upward move warrants a multidimensional technical assessment.
Candlestick Theory
The recent price action shows a decisive bullish candle on 2025-09-09, engulfing the prior session’s indecisive pattern. This breakout candle, closing near its high, signals strong buying pressure and potentially marks a reversal from the $165–$168 consolidation zone observed since late August. Key resistance is now established at the $180 psychological level, aligning with the June 2025 peak. Support is reinforced at $165, validated by multiple tests in August and September, and further strengthened near the $162 swing low.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day moving average ($168) recently crossed above the 100-day MA ($163), generating a near-term golden cross signal. The 200-day MA ($155) maintains a positive slope, corroborating the longer-term uptrend. Notably, the current price at $176.37 trades above all three key moving averages—the first such alignment since May 2025—suggesting a bullish structure. However, the wide dispersion between the 50-day and 200-day averages may indicate lingering volatility.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD (12,26,9) exhibits a bullish crossover above its signal line, with the histogram expanding positively since early September. Concurrently, KDJ’s %K (87) and %D (78) reflect overbought territory but maintain upward momentum without bearish divergence. This oscillator confluence implies sustained buying pressure, though overextension risks appear elevated. A bearish MACD crossover or KDJ reversal below 80 would warrant caution.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands (20-day, 2σ) show pronounced contraction throughout August, culminating in the September breakout above the upper band ($173). This volatility expansion validates the bullish momentum, with the bandwidth increasing by 15% this week. Price acceptance above the upper band suggests potential continuation, though mean reversion toward the $172 midline remains plausible.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume surged 54% during the breakout, with the 1.30 million shares traded significantly exceeding the 30-day average of 0.92 million. This high-volume confirmation demonstrates conviction behind the move. Volume distribution favors upside days since late August, with accumulation patterns near the $165 support reinforcing demand. Declining volume during minor pullbacks may reflect limited selling pressure.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (68) accelerated from neutral to near-overbought territory, reflecting the recent surge. While this exceeds its 60-day average of 55, RSI remains below the 70 overbought threshold. Historical data shows RSI frequently peaks near 75 during strong uptrends, suggesting room for further gains. That said, stretched readings above 70 would increase corrective probability.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci to the significant swing low of $114.62 (2024-09-10) and high of $183.00 (2025-01-13), key retracement levels include $166.86 (23.6%), $156.88 (38.2%), and $148.81 (50%). The recent consolidation held firmly above the 23.6% level, converting it to support. This aligns with the RSI bounce from 45 and the moving average cluster near $165–$168, strengthening the confluence for this zone.
Confluence among indicators is evident, with volume-backed breakout above key MAs, MACD/KDJ momentum alignment, and Fibonacci support reinforcing bullish bias. A significant divergence occurs between the MACD (bullish) and Bollinger Band positioning (overextended), suggesting possible near-term consolidation despite positive structure. Probabilistically, the confluence favors upside continuation toward the $180 resistance, though overbought oscillators warn of volatility.