Is the Nasdaq 100 Setting Up for a Final Bullish 5th Wave into April 2026?

The Nasdaq 100 has long been a barometer of innovation-driven market cycles, and as 2026 approaches, investors are scrutinizing whether the index is poised for a final bullish 5th wave-a potential climax in a multi-decade bull market. Drawing on Elliott Wave analysis and cyclical turn date forecasts, the evidence suggests a compelling case for a late-2026 surge, though risks of a sharp correction loom.

Elliott Wave Structure: A 5th Wave in the Making?

Elliott Wave theory posits that markets move in repetitive, fractal patterns, with the 5th wave often marking a final push in a bullish trend. According to a report by , the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) is currently in the 5th wave of the red W-c of the black W-3, with an ideal target zone of 26,500 ± 250 for the gray W-v wave. However, the index has yet to reach this level, trading at 24,780 as of late 2025. Analysts suggest that the 25,835 high observed in November 2025 may represent only the gray W-i of a larger (green) 5th wave, with a projected continuation to 28,000+ by April 18–28, 2026 according to the same analysis.

This projection aligns with a five-wave impulsive structure from the April 2025 low, where wave (5) could reach a new all-time high of 26,793 according to Elliott Wave forecast. If the pivot at 24,707.1 holds, further upside continuation in wave (5) is likely, with wave ((i)) topping at 25,768.75 and wave ((ii)) finding support at 25,478.50 according to the same forecast. Additionally, the index is expected to complete a final fifth wave (green W-5) targeting 26,680, a level close to the 161.80% Fibonacci extension of the black W-3 as reported by FXStreet.

Cyclical Turn Dates: April 2026 as a Critical Threshold

Cyclical turn date analysis adds another layer of insight. The Armstrong Pi-cycle, a tool with historical accuracy in predicting market corrections, targets key peaks around April 18 and 28, 2026 according to Investing.com analysis. These dates have previously aligned with major turning points, such as the March–April 2024 correction and the "Trump Tariff Tantrum" in 2023. If the Nasdaq 100 reaches its projected 5th wave target by these dates, it could signal the culmination of a long-term uptrend.

However, the path to 28,000+ is not without risks. A report by highlights that the index's breadth indicators, such as the NGX/NDX ratio, have started to turn higher, signaling a potential loss of momentum. This divergence between price and breadth metrics often precedes corrections, particularly in mature bull markets.

Risks and Corrections: A Bear Market Looming?

While the 5th wave scenario suggests optimism, analysts caution against complacency. Q1 and Q3 2026 identified as particularly vulnerable periods, with a correction risk driven by earnings and guidance pressures. A pullback of 5–10% is deemed more likely, but a deeper 10–20% correction remains a non-trivial risk if earnings disappointments intensify.

Moreover, historical patterns suggest that a 5th wave often precedes a bear market. As noted by , if the Nasdaq 100 reaches 26,700, the probability of a 2022-style bear market increases. This aligns with the Seeking Alpha analysis, which warns that the U.S. markets may be in the 4th wave of an Elliott pattern, with a bearish 5th wave potentially materializing as early as mid-2026 according to the analysis.

Conclusion: A High-Stakes Scenario for 2026

The Nasdaq 100's trajectory into April 2026 hinges on two critical factors: the integrity of its Elliott Wave structure and the alignment of cyclical turn dates. While the technical setup suggests a final bullish 5th wave targeting 26,500–28,000, investors must remain vigilant about the risks of a correction, particularly in Q1 and Q3. The coming months will test whether the index can sustain its momentum or if the maturing rally will give way to a broader market realignment.

For now, the data paints a paradox: markets remain optimistic about innovation and macroeconomic resilience, yet the durability of tech-driven gains remains uncertain. As April 2026 approaches, the Nasdaq 100's performance will serve as a litmus test for the health of the broader equity market.