Nasdaq 100: Elliott Wave, Seasonality, and Pi Cycles Signal 28,000 by Late 2026

The Nasdaq 100 (NDX) has long been a barometer for tech-driven market optimism, and recent technical analyses suggest it is poised for a historic rally. Combining Elliott Wave theory, historical seasonality patterns, and the Armstrong Pi-cycle, analysts project the index could reach 28,000 by late April 2026-provided critical support levels hold. This analysis synthesizes the latest wave counts, cyclical timing, and election-year dynamics to build a compelling case for this target.

Elliott Wave: A Prolonged Bull Run in Motion

According to a report by Investing.com, the NDX is currently navigating a complex Elliott Wave structure. The index has completed orange Wave-3 at 25,827 and is now in orange W-4 and W-5 of the gray W-iii count, peaking at 25,835. However, this high has not yet reached the projected 26,500 ± 250 target zone, prompting analysts to adjust their wave counts. The 25,835 level is now interpreted as the gray W-i of a larger (green) 5th wave, with a corrective W-ii expected to reach approximately 24,600.

If this correction succeeds and the index remains above the critical support level of 23,854 (reached on November 21, 2025), it could trigger a final 5th wave rally toward 28,000+ by April 18–28, 2026 according to analysts. This projection aligns with the broader view that the NDX is in the 5th wave of the red W-c of the black W-3, suggesting a continuation of the bull market as research shows. The Advance/Declining line (NYAD) further supports this thesis, having recently hit an all-time high-a sign that a bear market is not yet in play as per technical analysis.

Midterm Election-Year Seasonality: A Historical Catalyst

While specific Nasdaq 100 data for midterm election years like 2006, 2018, and 2022 is sparse, broader market trends indicate a pattern of volatility followed by strong post-election rebounds. For instance, the S&P 500 typically gains 6% annually during midterm years but often underperforms in the year preceding midterms before rebounding afterward. This dynamic suggests that the NDX's projected late-2026 peak could align with reduced political uncertainty and improved economic conditions, historically favorable for risk-on assets.

The timing of the 28,000 target-late April 2026-also coincides with the average peak for midterm election years, as noted in historical seasonality studies. This alignment strengthens the case for a synchronized rally driven by both technical and cyclical factors.

Armstrong Pi-Cycle: A Time-Based Confirmation

The Armstrong Pi-cycle, a mathematical model used to predict market turning points, adds another layer of confidence to the 2026 target. This cycle has historically predicted major corrections, including the March 2024 pullback and the 37% bear market of 2021–2022. Analysts now point to late April 2026 as a potential peak, with the Pi-cycle suggesting a high probability of a market top around this date.

While the Pi-cycle does not always anticipate all corrections, its track record in timing major inflection points-such as the "Trump Tariff Tantrum" of 2019-lends credibility to its 2026 projection. This time-based signal, combined with Elliott Wave and seasonality, creates a multi-dimensional case for the 28,000 level.

Risks and Alternatives: A Bear Market Looming?

The analysis is not without risks. A decisive break below the 23,854 support level would invalidate the bull case and signal the onset of a bear market. Additionally, while the long-term Elliott Wave pattern suggests the NDX could eventually reach 30,000 by 2027, the immediate focus remains on the 2026 target.

Historical precedents, such as the 2022 inflationary crisis (mapped to wave IV in the Elliott Wave count), also serve as cautionary tales. If the Federal Reserve's policy or geopolitical risks disrupt the current bull trend, the index could face a sharp correction. However, as of December 2025, the NDX remains above 23,300, with strong AI adoption and earnings growth providing tailwinds according to market analysis.

Conclusion: A Convergence of Signals

The Nasdaq 100's path to 28,000 by late 2026 hinges on a convergence of technical, cyclical, and seasonal factors. The Elliott Wave structure suggests a final 5th wave rally is imminent, while the Armstrong Pi-cycle and midterm election-year seasonality reinforce the timing. For investors, the November 21, 2025, low at 23,854 remains a critical watch level. If it holds, the stage is set for a historic move higher-capping a multi-year bull run.