Nasdaq 100's Elliott Wave Implications for Year-End Rally and Positioning Opportunities

The Nasdaq 100's technical trajectory has entered a critical juncture as of November 2025, with Elliott Wave analysis and Fibonacci retracement levels converging to outline a compelling case for a year-end rally. After bottoming at 23,854 on November 21-a level consistent with the target zone for a minor 4th wave (W-4)-the index has rebounded to 25,575, suggesting the initiation of a five-wave impulsive move (W-5) that could propel the Nasdaq toward 26,635, the 161.80% Fibonacci extension of its prior rally according to analysis. This setup, combined with broader structural bullishness and improving technical indicators, presents a high-probability trade for investors seeking to capitalize on Fibonacci-driven momentum.

Elliott Wave Structure and Fibonacci Targets

The Nasdaq 100's bullish cycle since the April 2025 low has unfolded as a textbook impulsive structure. Wave (3) of this rally concluded at 26,399, followed by a corrective wave (4) that completed as a double three pattern. A subsequent wave (5) is now underway, with Fibonacci projections indicating a new all-time high is in view. The immediate target stands at 26,793, while the larger gray W-iii wave aligns with a 26,500 ± 250 range, reinforcing the 26,700 level as a key psychological and technical threshold.

The 161.80% Fibonacci extension of the W-1 to W-3 move (~26,635) serves as a critical validation point for the impulsive wave (W-5). If the index breaches this level, it would confirm the continuation of the bullish trend and open the door to further gains toward 26,793. Conversely, a failure to hold above 25,369-a level coinciding with the 20-day moving average-could invalidate the wave count and trigger a deeper correction according to analysis.

Technical Momentum and Market Breadth

Despite a post-FOMC pullback and renewed US-China tensions, the Nasdaq 100's medium-term technical bias remains firmly bullish. The index continues to trade above its rising 20-day and 50-day moving averages, with the 4-hour RSI momentum indicator rebounding above a key ascending support level. This suggests a potential revival in medium-term bullish momentum, particularly as market breadth improves.

Data from Marketpulse highlights that 65% of Nasdaq 100 components are trading above their 20-day moving averages, while 56% are above the 50-day moving averages according to data. This divergence between the broader index and its components often precedes sustained rallies, as it indicates broad-based participation in the uptrend. Additionally, the bulls' warning levels at 25,369, 25,158, and 24,873 provide clear risk management thresholds for traders according to analysis.

Positioning Opportunities and Risk Management

For investors, the current setup offers a high-conviction entry point into the Nasdaq 100. A long position initiated near the 25,575 level-with a stop-loss below 25,369-aligns with the Fibonacci-driven wave count and technical momentum. The primary target of 26,635 offers a risk-reward ratio of approximately 1:1.5, while a secondary target at 26,793 provides additional upside potential for those willing to hold through volatility.

However, caution is warranted. A breakdown below 24,873 would signal a potential shift in sentiment, invalidating the impulsive wave (W-5) and increasing the likelihood of a deeper correction into 23,854. Traders should also monitor the 20-day moving average as a dynamic support level, with a sustained close below 25,158 acting as an early warning of waning momentum according to analysis.

Conclusion

The Nasdaq 100's Elliott Wave structure and Fibonacci retracement levels present a robust framework for assessing the index's year-end trajectory. With technical momentum intact, improving market breadth, and clear Fibonacci targets in view, the case for a rally toward 26,700 remains compelling. However, disciplined risk management-anchored to key support levels and wave-count validation points-is essential to navigating the inherent volatility of this phase. As the index approaches critical junctures, investors must remain agile, balancing optimism with prudence to capitalize on the unfolding technical setup.