Nasdaq 100: Elliott Wave Analysis Suggests Impending All-Time Highs

The Nasdaq 100 (NDX) has long been a barometer of innovation-driven equity markets, and as of December 2025, its technical and structural dynamics point to a compelling case for further gains. A growing consensus among technical analysts and Elliott Wave practitioners suggests the index is unfolding in the of a larger bullish impulse, with the potential to extend into a final fifth wave (green W-5) targeting all-time highs. This analysis is supported by Fibonacci extensions, momentum indicators, and key structural thresholds that collectively reinforce a high-probability bullish scenario.

Elliott Wave Structure: A 3rd of a 3rd Wave Unfolding

Elliott Wave theory posits that markets move in five-wave impulse structures followed by three-wave corrections. For the Nasdaq 100, the current trajectory aligns with a within a larger impulse, characterized by strong momentum and extended price action. According to a report by , the index is in the "third wave of a larger bull trend," with wave (iii) typically the most powerful and extended leg of the pattern. This phase is marked by robust market breadth, as evidenced by a significant increase in Nasdaq 100 components trading above their 20-day and 50-day moving averages.

The wave count further suggests that the index is poised to enter wave (v) after completing a corrective wave (iv). Analysts project that wave (v) could push the NDX toward , a level derived from the 161.8% Fibonacci extension of wave (i) relative to earlier price action. More ambitious targets, such as and even , are also being discussed, particularly if the current fifth wave extends beyond initial projections.

Fibonacci Targets and Key Structural Levels

Fibonacci retracement and extension levels play a critical role in validating the Elliott Wave count. The 161.8% extension of wave (i) aligns closely with the level, while the 376.4% extension-a less commonly referenced but historically significant level-suggests the potential for even higher targets. These levels are reinforced by historical patterns, including Pi-cycle turn dates, which have accurately predicted major turning points in the past.

However, caution is warranted if the index fails to hold key support levels. A breakdown below could signal the end of the bullish wave and the onset of a significant correction. Similarly, and indicate increasing probabilities that the green W-5 has completed, necessitating a reevaluation of the wave count.

Technical Momentum: Overbought Conditions and Divergence Signals

Momentum indicators further bolster the case for a continuation of the bullish trend. for the Nasdaq 100 is currently elevated at , reflecting overbought conditions typical of wave (iii) behavior. While overbought readings can precede corrections, the RSI's recent rebound above a key ascending support line on the 4-hour chart suggests a medium-term bullish revival.

The also supports the continuation of the uptrend, with positive divergence observed in recent price action. Meanwhile, the indicates a strengthening trend, and Bollinger Bands show tightening volatility-a precursor to a potential breakout. Volume patterns further confirm the bullish case, with significant buying pressure evident during recent rallies.

Strategic Positioning for the Next Bullish Leg

For investors, the current setup presents a strategic opportunity to position ahead of the next bullish leg. Given the index's alignment with a 3rd of a 3rd wave, the immediate focus should be on and . A breakout above would validate the extended fifth-wave scenario, potentially unlocking targets beyond by mid-2026.

However, risk management remains critical. A breakdown below could invalidate the bullish case and trigger a sharp correction. Traders may consider using stop-loss orders near these critical thresholds while maintaining a portion of capital for scaling into positions as the wave unfolds.

Conclusion

The Nasdaq 100's technical and structural dynamics paint a compelling picture of a market in the midst of a powerful bullish impulse. With the index unfolding in a 3rd of a 3rd wave and supported by Fibonacci extensions, overbought momentum indicators, and strengthening trend strength, the case for all-time highs remains robust. While caution is warranted around key support levels, the confluence of technical and wave-based signals suggests that the NDX is far from exhausting its upward potential.