Nasdaq 100 Elliott Wave Analysis and 2026 Market Outlook: Key Turning Points and Positioning Strategies

The Nasdaq 100 (NDX) has long been a barometer of innovation-driven markets, and its current Elliott Wave structure offers a compelling roadmap for investors navigating the transition into 2026. As of November 2025, the index remains embedded in a bullish trend, with technical and cyclical signals converging on a potential final leg higher. This analysis synthesizes the latest wave counts, projected turning points, and actionable positioning strategies to prepare for the next phase of the Nasdaq 100's trajectory.

Elliott Wave Structure and Key Turning Points

The NDX has completed orange Wave-3 at 25,827, orange Wave-4 at 25,504, and orange Wave-5 at 25,835, aligning with a classic five-wave impulsive pattern according to the latest analysis. However, the index has yet to reach the projected target of 26,500 ± 250 for the larger black Wave-3, a level critical to confirming the completion of this phase. Analysts now reclassify the 25,835 high as the gray Wave-i of a larger fifth wave, with Wave-ii correction targeting ~24,600.

A pivotal turning point is the November 21 low at 23,854. If this level holds, it validates the continuation of the bullish trend, with a final fifth wave potentially propelling the NDX to 28,000+ by late April 2026. This projection is reinforced by historical midterm election-year seasonality and Armstrong Pi-cycle turning points, which have historically aligned with major market inflections. Additionally, the Advance/Declining line (NYAD) hitting a new all-time high suggests a bear market is not yet in progress, further supporting the case for a sustained rally.

Positioning for the 2026 Bull Phase

With the NDX resuming upward momentum in wave (5) from 24,707.1, traders are advised to adopt a bullish bias. Options strategies such as at-the-money or slightly out-of-the-money calls on Nasdaq futures or ETFs with expirations in late December 2025 or January 2026 are particularly attractive. These instruments capitalize on the immediate path of least resistance, which favors further gains as long as the 24,707.1 pivot remains intact.

For longer-term positioning, maintaining exposure to AI beneficiaries and growth-oriented ETFs-such as the State Street SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Growth ETF (SPYG) or the SPDR Portfolio Emerging Markets ETF (SPEM)-offers a strategic edge. These vehicles align with the broader macroeconomic backdrop of easing inflation, strong earnings, and anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026.

Risk Management and Dynamic Stops

While the bullish case is compelling, risk management remains paramount. The NDX's failure to reach the 26,500 target zone has introduced volatility, with key warning levels at 25,369, 25,158, 24,542, and 23,854. A daily close below any of these levels increases the probability that the current uptrend has ended by 20%. For instance, a break below 24,707.1 would invalidate the bullish Elliott Wave count and signal a deeper correction.

Shorter-term traders should also monitor the 65-minute and 1-hour charts, where impulsive moves suggest a target of 26,635 for orange Wave-3, followed by a correction to 25,300 ± 100 for orange Wave-4 according to technical analysis. These levels serve as dynamic stops to manage exposure during pullbacks.

Conclusion: Balancing Optimism and Caution

The Nasdaq 100's Elliott Wave structure and macroeconomic tailwinds paint a cautiously optimistic picture for 2026. While the index's failure to reach 26,500 introduces uncertainty, the holding of key support levels like 23,854 and 24,707.1 remains critical to the bullish case. Investors are advised to position selectively, using options and ETFs to capitalize on the projected 28,000+ target while maintaining tight stops at dynamic levels. As always, the interplay between technical structure and macroeconomic fundamentals will dictate the path forward, making disciplined risk management an indispensable tool in this phase of the cycle.