Nanya Tech sees DRAM supply to remain tight through 2028: report

Nanya Tech sees DRAM supply to remain tight through 2028: report

Nanya Technology Forecasts Prolonged DRAM Supply Constraints Through 2028

Nanya Technology Corp, a leading DRAM manufacturer, has signaled that global supply shortages for dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) will persist through 2028, driven by sustained demand from artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure and structural shifts in production priorities. The company's fourth-quarter 2025 revenue surged 60.65% year-over-year to NT$30.17 billion (US$957 million), reflecting heightened market conditions.

The tightening supply environment stems from major memory producers, including Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron, reallocating capacity toward high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and DDR5 chips for AI servers, which command higher margins. This shift has reduced output of conventional DRAM products such as DDR4 and DDR3, exacerbating shortages. Nanya's president, Lee Pei-ing, noted that AI servers and cloud-based applications are fueling demand for high-density memory, with supply constraints expected to endure for multiple DRAM segments, including DDR5, low-power DDR5, and DDR4.

Market research firm TrendForce projects sequential contract price increases of 55–60% for conventional DRAM in Q1 2026, with server DRAM prices rising 60% and NAND flash prices climbing 33–38%. Nanya's net profit for Q4 2025 reached NT$11.08 billion, a sixfold increase from the prior quarter, as higher prices boosted gross margins to 49%.

To address long-term supply challenges, Nanya plans record capital expenditures of NT$50 billion (US$1.58 billion) in 2026, tripling its 2025 investment, to expand production capacity. A new plant is expected to enter volume production by mid-2027, with monthly wafer output targeting 20,000 12-inch units by mid-2028.

Industry analysts warn that structural imbalances, rather than cyclical fluctuations, are now shaping the market. SK Hynix has internally forecast DRAM supply shortages to persist through 2028, while Micron and others are scaling back consumer-focused DRAM production to prioritize AI and enterprise markets.

For investors, the prolonged tightness underscores the strategic importance of memory suppliers with disciplined capacity management, as pricing power and margins remain elevated in this AI-driven supercycle.