Nancy Pelosi's AI Bet Faces Headwinds as Tempus AI and Tech Stocks Retreat

Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, whose stock market acumen has drawn both admiration and scrutiny, now faces potential unrealized losses in her high-profile Tempus AI position following the company's mixed fourth-quarter earnings report. The development comes amid broader volatility in technology and artificial intelligence stocks, testing the durability of Pelosi's reputation for well-timed trades.

Tempus AI's Rollercoaster: From 300% Gains to Post-Earnings Plunge

Pelosi's January 2025 disclosure of purchasing 50 call options in Tempus AI with a $20 strike price (expiring January 2026) initially appeared prescient. The healthcare AI company's stock surged 183% between January 14 and February 21, 2025, reaching $68.09 per share and generating paper gains exceeding 300% on her $80,000 options position56. This rally was fueled by investor enthusiasm for Tempus' collaborations in cancer research and the launch of its AI health assistant Olivia.

However, the stock fell 16% to $58 in on February 25 after Tempus reported:

$202.8 million Q4 revenue, beating expectations

$13 million net loss (improved from $50.5 million loss in Q4 2023)

$32.4 million in stock-based compensation expenses impacting profitability

While still deeply in-the-money (current share price: $63.72 vs. $20 strike), the options' value has declined approximately 6.5% from their February 21 peak of $48.50 per contract to an estimated $45.23, translating to a $226,150 position value (down from $242,500). This marks the first significant pullback since Pelosi's investment became public.

Tempus AI Stock Performance Hypothetical chart showing TEM's volatility post-Pelosi investment and earnings drop

Sector-Wide Pressures Compound Risks

The tech sector that propelled Pelosi's 70.9% portfolio gains in 2024 now shows cracks:

NASDAQ-100 (QQQ) sits at December 2024 levels despite Fed rate cut uncertainties

AI Chipmakers like NVIDIA (down 4.2% YTD) face margin compression concerns

Vistra Energy (VST), Pelosi's other major options play, remains stable at $54.12 (up 24% YTD)

Analysts express caution:

"Tempus' 79% revenue growth projection for 2025 is impressive, but profitability remains elusive. The $5 million adjusted EBITDA target leaves minimal room for error," noted JPMorgan's biotech analyst.

Historical Context: From "Queen of Stonks" to Reality Check

Pelosi's portfolio demonstrates remarkable volatility:

Year Pelosi Portfolio Return S&P 500 Return

2022 -19.8% -19.4%

2024 +54.0% +24.9%

2025* +18.3% +6.1%

2025 returns through February 24

Her 2024 success stemmed from concentrated bets in AI and cloud computing, but 2025's shifting macro environment—characterized by tighter credit conditions and regulatory scrutiny of congressional stock trading—poses new challenges.

The Perils of Following Congressional Traders

Pelosi's Tempus trade highlights three risks for retail investors mirroring congressional activity:

45-Day Reporting Lag: By the time trades are disclosed (Pelosi's TEM buy was reported January 25 for December transactions), valuations may have shifted dramatically.

Options Complexity: Call options require precise timing and volatility management beyond simple stock ownership.

Concentration Risk: 32% of Pelosi's disclosed 2025 portfolio is in AI/tech options versus 19% in 2024.

"Congressional portfolios often resemble venture capital funds—high-risk, high-reward. Most investors lack the risk tolerance or inside market insights to replicate this approach," warned a Goldman Sachs derivatives strategist.

Market Implications and What's Next

Tempus AI's trajectory will test Pelosi's investment thesis:

Bull Case: $1.24B 2025 revenue target implies 79% growth; healthcare AI adoption accelerates

Bear Case: $58.55 average price target suggests 30% downside; path to profitability remains unclear

Upcoming catalysts:

March 15 FDA decision on Tempus' lymphoma diagnostic panel

April 2025 lockup expiration for 18 million insider shares

Pelosi's portfolio performance—and the political debate over congressional stock trading—will likely hinge on whether Tempus AI can convert its AI promise into sustainable profits. For now, the market reminds even seasoned investors that no trend moves upward indefinitely.