Namibia's Oil Potential Takes Shape Amid Reassessments

Namibia, a hot spot for oil exploration, is poised to start producing oil after years of promise but little actual output. The country's geology is poorer than Guyana, but it still has potential for oil production, estimated to reach 300,000-400,000 barrels by the mid-2030s. Two companies are nearing a final investment decision, which could confirm the viability of their discoveries and unlock Namibia's oil riches.

Namibia, long recognized as a hot spot for oil exploration, is poised to start producing oil after years of promise but little actual output. The country's geology, though poorer than Guyana, still holds significant potential for oil production. Estimates suggest Namibia could reach 300,000 to 400,000 barrels of oil per day by the mid-2030s [1].

Two companies, TotalEnergies and Shell, are nearing a final investment decision (FID) on their respective discoveries in Namibia's Orange Basin. These decisions could confirm the viability of their finds and unlock the country's oil riches. TotalEnergies' Venus and Galp's Mopane discoveries, along with Shell's Graff find, have confirmed a working petroleum system in the basin [1].

The geology of Namibia presents unique challenges, with lower permeability and a high gas-to-oil ratio compared to other oil-rich regions like Guyana. However, the potential rewards are significant. The Orange Basin is expected to deliver large volumes of oil with fewer wells and longer plateau production, making it an attractive prospect for companies seeking scalable, long-life reserves [1].

The African country's exploration efforts are supported by improved seismic imaging and favorable fiscal regimes, which are drawing attention from major players in the industry. Companies are navigating complex regulatory environments and assessing above-ground risks to ensure alignment with their broader portfolio strategies [1].

Namibia's geopolitical stability and investment-friendly climate make it an attractive destination for exploration capital. The country is positioning itself as a future deepwater hub, with the potential to become a significant player in the global oil market [1].

For investors and financial professionals, Namibia's oil exploration presents a compelling opportunity. The country's geology may be challenging, but the potential rewards are substantial. As companies like TotalEnergies and Shell move closer to final investment decisions, Namibia's oil riches may finally start to flow, transforming the country's economic landscape.

References:
[1] https://adi-analytics.com/2025/07/24/africas-new-oil-frontier-emerging-exploration-hotspots-across-the-continent/
[2] https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-07-28/big-oil-namibia-oil-riches-may-finally-start-to-flow