Nabors Industries' Q4 2024: Key Contradictions on Saudi Rig Stability, Efficiency Gains, and Debt Reduction Plans

These are the key contradictions discussed in Nabors Industries Ltd.'s latest 2024Q4 earnings call, specifically including: Saudi Arabia's Rig Market Stability and Newbuild Program, Impact of Efficiency Gains on Lower 48 Rig Demand in 2025, Debt Reduction Plans, and SANAD Newbuild Budget and Schedule:



Challenges in Free Cash Flow and Debt Reduction:
- Nabors reported a shortfall in free cash flow in Q4, with a consumption of approximately $50 million compared to expectations of generating near $20 million.
- This shortfall was primarily due to delayed payments from Mexico and accelerated milestone completion payments in Saudi Arabia.
- The company plans to reduce gross debt by approximately $150 million in 2025, using the free cash flow generated outside of the SANAD segment.

International Market Opportunities and Growth:
- Nabors expects significant growth in international markets, with plans to deploy 10 rigs in 2025, including 5 newbuilds in Saudi Arabia.
- The company has a strong pipeline of tenders and is optimistic about incremental rig awards that could deploy in 2026.
- Growth is supported by favorable market conditions, especially in key geographies like Asia, MENA, and Latin America.

Impact of U.S. Market Conditions:
- The U.S. drilling rig market experienced an elevated level of churn despite stable leading-edge pricing for high-performance rigs.
- The Lower 48 market remained at levels similar to prior quarters, impacting Nabors' operations in that region.
- A survey of major clients indicated a 4% reduction in their rig count by the end of 2025, primarily driven by external factors rather than operational issues.

Strategic Investments in Saudi Arabia:
- Nabors' SANAD joint venture is set to deploy nine newbuild rigs in 2025, with five more expected in 2026, contributing significantly to EBITDA.
- The Saudi Arabia strategic investment is expected to generate a return on invested capital within five years, with long-term contracted growth plans in place.
- The company is projecting breakeven free cash flow from SANAD in 2027-2028, with the opportunity for distributions to partners thereafter.