Is MYX Finance's 90% Price Surge Sustainable or a Pump-and-Dump Warning?

The recent 90% price surge in MYX Finance has ignited intense debate among investors and analysts. While some view it as a structural breakout driven by the project's V2 upgrade and growing derivatives ecosystem, others warn of speculative excess and manipulation risks. This analysis examines technical and on-chain data-including On-Balance Volume (OBV), Relative Strength Index (RSI), open interest, and token unlock events-to determine whether the rally reflects genuine demand or a precarious speculative trap.

On-Balance Volume (OBV): Accumulation or Artificial Momentum?

MYX Finance's OBV surged past $11 billion in December 2025, breaking a two-week flat trend and signaling accumulation. This aligns with a 23% 24-hour price gain and a 19% weekly rise, positioning MYX as a top-performing cryptocurrency. However, on-chain researchers have flagged irregularities, including coordinated buying across exchanges and suspicious timing of token unlocks. While OBV typically confirms bullish momentum, its divergence from price action-such as a steady decline in open interest and negative funding rates-suggests the rally may stem from a short squeeze rather than sustained demand.

RSI Overbought Conditions: Historical Precedents vs. Immediate Risks

The RSI for MYX Finance exceeded 70.0 in December 2025, entering overbought territory. Historically, the token has defied traditional overbought signals, sustaining rallies of 1,680% (August 2025) and 913% (September 2025) without immediate corrections. However, overbought conditions often precede corrections, especially in thinly traded assets. The 7-day RSI hit 81.25-the highest since September 2025-further amplifying concerns about near-term profit-taking. While RSI alone may not signal exhaustion, it underscores the need for caution in a market prone to volatility.

Open Interest: Growing Exposure or Liquidity Thinning?

Open interest for MYX Finance rose 8.48% to $45.63 million during the December surge, indicating traders were adding positions rather than exiting. Long accounts accounted for 64.22% of positions, with a long/short ratio of 1.79, reflecting strong bullish sentiment. Yet, conflicting data emerges: open interest declined 14% to $21.27 million by late December, accompanied by a negative funding rate of -0.0140% and a shift toward short dominance. This duality suggests short-term speculative flows may outweigh structural demand, with liquidity thinning as TVL dropped by $1.16 million over eight days.

Token Unlocks: Selling Pressure and Manipulation Risks

A critical risk factor is the December 2025 token unlock event, which released 3.9% of MYX's supply (38.99 million tokens). The unlocked tokens' value surged from $3.9 million to $59.42 million, creating significant selling pressure. A major investor, Hack VC, triggered a 58% price drop by dumping its unlocked tokens. Such events highlight the vulnerability of projects with concentrated ownership, where whale activity can distort price action. On-chain analysts warn that coordinated exits-such as the $39 million sell-off observed-could exacerbate volatility and erode trust.

Sustainability: Fundamentals vs. Speculation

Despite red flags, MYX Finance's V2 upgrade-promising zero-slippage perpetual futures and cross-chain functionality-has drawn institutional interest. The price breakout above a two-month ascending channel and the 50-SMA further reinforce bullish technical setups. However, the interplay between derivatives data and price action remains ambiguous. While OBV and open interest suggest accumulation, declining funding rates and liquidity clusters near $3.20 and $3.45 indicate fragile support levels.

Conclusion: A High-Risk, High-Reward Scenario

MYX Finance's 90% surge reflects a mix of genuine demand and speculative fervor. Technical indicators like OBV and RSI hint at sustained momentum, but overbought conditions and token unlock risks create a precarious environment. Open interest trends are contradictory, with bullish positioning clashing against liquidity outflows and short dominance. Investors must weigh the project's fundamentals-such as its derivatives platform expansion-against the likelihood of profit-taking and manipulation. For now, MYX Finance remains a high-risk asset, best approached with strict risk management and close monitoring of on-chain activity.