MyShell/Bitcoin (SHELLBTC) Market Overview

Summary
• SHELLBTC consolidates after a sharp late-night drop, with price testing key support levels.
• Volume surges at critical price levels, confirming bearish sentiment overnight.
• RSI signals oversold conditions, hinting at a potential rebound in the near term.
• Bollinger Bands show compressed volatility before a potential breakout.
• Recent Fibonacci retracement levels align with current price consolidation.

MyShell/Bitcoin (SHELLBTC) opened at $0.00104 on 2025-11-11 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of $0.00105, and closed at $0.00098 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-11-12. The pair recorded a 24-hour trading volume of 250,972.8 units and a notional turnover of approximately $246.38, showing heightened bearish momentum in the latter half of the day.

The 15-minute OHLCV data shows SHELLBTC trending lower after an initial consolidation phase. A strong bearish reversal is evident between 00:15 ET and 04:30 ET as the price moved below $0.00100. The move is supported by large-volume printouts, especially during the 22:15 ET and 00:15 ET candlesticks, which confirm the bearish pressure. A key bearish engulfing pattern emerged on the 22:15 ET candle, with the close at $0.00100 from an open of $0.00101 and high of $0.00101. A doji formed at 00:15 ET as the price bottomed at $0.00098 before consolidating.

On the moving averages, the 20-period and 50-period lines on the 15-minute chart are bearish, with the 20-period crossing below the 50-period. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA is above the 100-period and 200-period lines, indicating a broader bearish trend. The price remains below all key moving averages across both timeframes, reinforcing the downtrend.

The RSI (14) on the 15-minute chart fell into oversold territory, reaching a low of ~28, while the daily RSI (14) sits at ~35, suggesting the pair may be due for a minor rebound. The MACD histogram turned negative and remains bearish, with the MACD line below the signal line. Bollinger Bands show a narrow contraction in the early morning, followed by a sharp expansion as the price broke below the lower band. This contraction suggests a period of consolidation prior to a potential breakout.

Volume and turnover data reflect significant selling pressure, with the largest volume print occurring at 22:15 ET with 22,658.7 units traded. A divergence is evident in the volume profile, with lower volume accompanying a lower close during the afternoon. This may indicate a lack of conviction in the bearish move, potentially signaling a short-term pause in the downward trajectory.

Fibonacci retracements from the high of $0.00105 to the low of $0.00098 align with the current price consolidation around $0.00098–$0.00099. The 61.8% retracement level is at $0.00099, which may act as a potential support. The 50% retracement at $0.000995 could also serve as a short-term pivot level. The 38.2% level is at $0.000999, which may be a key resistance in the near term.

The current market setup suggests a high probability of further downside in the next 24 hours, particularly if the price fails to hold above $0.00098. However, a rebound into the $0.00099–$0.00100 range may offer a short-term trading opportunity. Investors should remain cautious as volatility remains elevated, and a break below $0.00098 could accelerate the trend.

The backtest hypothesis proposed involves identifying support-level events based on Fibonacci retracement levels and price action patterns such as bearish engulfing and doji. A potential strategy could trigger a short position when price breaks below a key Fibonacci level (e.g., 61.8% retracement) and volume spikes, with an exit strategy based on a fixed stop-loss or a move above a 50-period moving average. A backtest from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-12 would require confirming the exact data source and parameters, including how the “Support Level” is defined (e.g., Fibonacci, moving average, or fixed level), as well as the entry and exit rules.