MyShell/Bitcoin Market Overview (SHELLBTC) – 2025-09-22

• Price fell 1.25e-06 to 1.08e-06 amid low-volume consolidation and key breakdown levels.
• Volatility spiked overnight with a sharp drop from 1.23e-06 to 1.11e-06, followed by consolidation.
• RSI signaled oversold conditions mid-day, while volume surged during early morning selloff.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed at 1.23e-06, followed by a failed rebound and retesting of 1.18e-06.
• Bollinger Bands show compression after the drop, suggesting potential for a breakout or continuation.

Price and Volume Summary

MyShell/Bitcoin (SHELLBTC) opened at 1.25e-06 at 12:00 ET − 1, reached a high of 1.25e-06, and closed at 1.08e-06 by 12:00 ET. The low was 1.04e-06. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 384,048.2, with a total notional turnover of approximately 382.2 (at an average price of ~1.0e-06). Price action suggests a bearish continuation with limited short-term reversal signals.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart displayed multiple bearish signals, including a bearish engulfing pattern forming at 1.23e-06 and a sharp breakdown from 1.23e-06 to 1.18e-06. A failed rebound between 1.18e-06 and 1.13e-06 followed, indicating bearish dominance. A key support level appears to form at 1.11e-06 and has held through multiple tests. Further breakdown below this could target 1.08e-06 or even 1.04e-06.

Moving Averages

Short-term 15-minute EMA/SMAs (20/50) show price below the 50-period line, indicating bearish momentum. On the daily chart, 50/100/200 EMA/SMAs confirm a longer bearish trend, with the 200 SMA likely offering critical support if price continues to fall.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned bearish in early morning with a negative crossover, confirming the selloff from 1.23e-06 to 1.11e-06. RSI dipped into oversold territory at 1.1e-06 and has since consolidated around 40-45, suggesting a weak bullish attempt. A sustained close above 1.13e-06 could bring RSI into neutral territory but would still require a significant reversal to confirm a bullish trend.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly overnight following the breakdown from 1.23e-06, with Bollinger Bands widening out to 1.25e-06 to 1.04e-06. Price closed near the lower band at 1.08e-06, indicating continued bearish pressure. A contraction in the bands may signal a potential reversal, but for now, price remains within a clear downtrend.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply in the early hours of the 24-hour window during the selloff from 1.23e-06 to 1.11e-06, particularly between 02:00 ET and 06:00 ET. This suggests strong selling pressure. However, volume has since declined, indicating consolidation and limited conviction in either direction.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 61.8% retracement level from the 1.23e-06 high to the 1.11e-06 low is around 1.16e-06, which was tested and rejected twice. A break below 1.08e-06 would suggest a target of 1.04e-06 (100% extension).

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent consolidation near key Fibonacci and Bollinger Band levels, a potential backtest strategy could involve a short entry on a breakout below 1.08e-06, with a stop-loss placed above 1.11e-06. A target of 1.04e-06 would align with the 100% extension level. This approach would leverage both trend continuation and volatility compression signals observed in the 24-hour window.