MyShell/Bitcoin Market Overview

• • •

• Price drifted lower with a bearish engulfing pattern after a brief 15-minute rally.
• RSI suggests oversold conditions but lacks volume confirmation.
• Volatility contracted mid-day before a final leg down late afternoon ET.
• Key support appears to be forming near 1.16e-06.
• Turnover remains subdued, with no clear signs of large institutional buying.

MyShell/Bitcoin (SHELLBTC) opened at 1.2e-06 on 2025-09-18 at 12:00 ET and closed at 1.16e-06 on 2025-09-19 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour low reached 1.15e-06, with a high of 1.23e-06. Total volume for the period was 13,247.3 and turnover amounted to ~14.75e-06 (SHELLBTC equivalent). Price action shows a bearish bias, with a final leg down in the last three candlesticks.

Structure & Formations

Price action during the 24-hour period displayed a bearish bias, with a key bearish engulfing pattern forming at the high of the session (1.23e-06) before a prolonged decline. A doji appeared at 05:15 ET, indicating indecision. Key support levels emerged at 1.16e-06 and 1.15e-06, where price found a floor late afternoon. Resistance remains at 1.2e-06 and 1.21e-06, both of which were tested but not decisively broken.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20- and 50-period moving averages showed a consistent downward slope, with price closing below both. This reinforces bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA sits above the 100- and 200-period MAs, suggesting intermediate-term bearish bias. If price closes above 1.2e-06 for an extended period, the 50-period MA could become a dynamic support level.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed into negative territory and remained bearish for the majority of the session, with the histogram showing consistent negative momentum. RSI dipped below 30 during the final three hours of the period, signaling oversold conditions. However, this lack of bullish follow-through suggests that a short-covering rally may be limited in scope.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility remained subdued for much of the session, with price staying within the Bollinger Band envelope and not touching the outer bands. A contraction occurred mid-day between 03:00 and 05:00 ET, followed by a modest expansion as price moved lower. Price closed near the lower band, reinforcing the bearish narrative.

Volume & Turnover

Volume remained muted for the first half of the session but picked up slightly in the afternoon, particularly between 04:15 and 06:00 ET, coinciding with a sharp decline. Turnover increased during these hours but remained relatively low compared to historical averages. A divergence appears in the final hour, where volume dropped despite a sharp price decline, suggesting possible slippage or thin order books.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the 15-minute high (1.23e-06) and low (1.15e-06), price found support at 61.8% (1.17e-06) and 38.2% (1.19e-06). A retest of these levels could provide confirmation of a temporary pause in the decline. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of a prior larger bear move remains key near 1.2e-06.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy outlined involves using a long bias on RSI divergence (RSI < 30 and rising) combined with a bullish breakout above the 20-period MA on the 15-minute chart. Given today's data, while RSI did dip into oversold territory, volume failed to confirm strength, and the MA crossover remained bearish. A potential entry point would require price to close above 1.2e-06 with increasing volume to align with the strategy's criteria.