MyShell/Bitcoin Market Overview (2025-09-25)

• MyShell/Bitcoin (SHELLBTC) closed at 1.09e-06 on 2025-09-25, down from an open of 1.15e-06, with a 24-h high of 1.18e-06 and low of 1.07e-06.
• A bearish trend was reinforced by a key 1.13e-06 resistance level and a breakdown below 1.14e-06.
• Elevated volume of 196,109.4 and turnover of $209.58 signaled heightened bearish conviction.
• Bollinger Bands indicated tightening volatility, and RSI moved into oversold territory.
• Fibonacci levels at 1.09e-06 and 1.08e-06 suggest potential short-term support areas to watch.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-09-25, MyShell/Bitcoin (SHELLBTC) opened at 1.15e-06, reaching a high of 1.18e-06 and falling to a low of 1.07e-06 before closing at 1.09e-06. Over the 24-hour period, total volume reached 196,109.4, with notional turnover of approximately $209.58, reflecting moderate liquidity and bearish sentiment. The price action suggests a consolidation phase following a downward thrust.

Structure & Formations

SHELLBTC formed a bearish breakdown pattern as it failed to hold above the 1.14e-06 psychological level. A key resistance at 1.13e-06 was tested and broken, followed by a sharp retest and confirmation of its bearish role. A doji at 1.13e-06 on 02:30 ET and a long bearish shadow at 03:30 ET signaled exhaustion in the short-term rally attempts. Price found support temporarily at the 1.12e-06 and 1.09e-06 levels, with the 1.08e-06 mark emerging as a likely next target.

Moving Averages

The 20 and 50-period moving averages on the 15-min chart both showed a downward drift, indicating a continuation of bearish momentum. On a daily basis, the 50-day and 100-day moving averages are converging from above, suggesting a potential shift toward a more neutral or bearish bias as the 50-day line may cross below the 100-day line in the near term. The 200-day MA remains well above current prices, reinforcing the long-term bearish trend.

MACD & RSI

MACD lines remained below zero throughout most of the session, with a narrowing histogram indicating reduced bearish momentum. The RSI reached oversold territory below 30 in the final hours of the session, potentially signaling a short-term rebound. However, the lack of a strong divergence between price and RSI suggests that the bearish trend is likely to persist unless a meaningful breakout above 1.14e-06 occurs.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a tightening pattern in the early hours, followed by a moderate expansion as price drifted lower. The price closed near the lower band at 1.08e-06, indicating heightened bearish bias. A break below the 1.08e-06 level could lead to increased volatility and a test of the 1.07e-06 support.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked at key turning points, particularly during the breakdown below 1.14e-06 and the subsequent consolidation phase. Turnover confirmed the bearish momentum, with heavy trading activity seen between 03:30 and 06:30 ET. The absence of large bullish candles during high-volume periods suggests limited buyer interest.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels derived from the 1.18e-06 high and 1.07e-06 low indicated key support at 1.09e-06 (38.2%) and 1.08e-06 (61.8%). Price action has respected the 1.09e-06 level, but further tests of 1.08e-06 are expected. A breakdown below 1.08e-06 could extend the decline toward the 1.07e-06 level, which may provide a temporary floor.

Backtest Hypothesis

The described backtesting strategy focuses on identifying breakdowns in key Fibonacci and moving average levels, particularly when confirmed by bearish candlestick formations and diverging RSI. Historical data from SHELLBTC suggests that such setups—especially when reinforced by strong volume—have led to continuation of the bearish trend over the following 24 to 48 hours. A strategy that initiates short positions on a close below 1.14e-06 with a stop at 1.15e-06 and a target at 1.08e-06 could be viable, but requires confirmation via volume and RSI divergence to avoid false breakdowns.