MyNeighborAlice/Tether Market Overview: 2025-09-21

• MyNeighborAlice/Tether (ALICEUSDT) traded between $0.3559 and $0.3691, with a bearish close amid rising volume in late hours.
• Price formed a double top near $0.3645 and broke below the 20-period SMA, signaling potential bearish momentum.
• RSI entered oversold territory briefly, while Bollinger Bands showed modest volatility expansion.
• A large-volume sell-off near $0.3613 and a late rally toward $0.3673 highlight key reversal attempts.
• The 24-hour volume hit $3.89M, with notional turnover rising during late-ET buying surges.

24-Hour Price and Volume Summary

MyNeighborAlice/Tether (ALICEUSDT) opened at $0.3621 on 2025-09-20 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.3604 on 2025-09-21 at 12:00 ET, with a high of $0.3691 and a low of $0.3559. Total trading volume was 280,559 ALICE, and notional turnover reached $3.89M. Price action showed a bearish bias throughout the period, with late-day volatility and a failed attempt to break above $0.3645.

Structure and Key Levels

Price formed several bearish structures, most notably a double top near $0.3645 during the early morning ET hours. This level served as a short-term resistance that failed to hold, with price retreating after multiple attempts. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged at $0.3613, followed by a shooting star at $0.3645, reinforcing the likelihood of a continuation of the downward trend.

Support appears to be consolidating around $0.3600–$0.3590, while resistance levels to watch include $0.3630 and $0.3645. A Bullish Pinocchio pattern at $0.3590 could suggest a short-term bounce, though a break below $0.3590 would likely target $0.3560 as a next support level.

Indicators and Momentum

The 20-period SMA crossed below the 50-period SMA, forming a death cross in the 15-minute chart, which adds bearish momentum. The RSI reached oversold territory in the late hours, peaking at 30 but failing to trigger a meaningful bounce. This suggests accumulation may be forming, but it could also be a false recovery.

The MACD crossed into negative territory and showed bearish divergence, indicating weakening bullish momentum. Bollinger Bands showed a modest expansion during the early morning ET sell-off, with price bouncing off the lower band around $0.3590.

The Fibonacci Retracement from the high of $0.3691 to the low of $0.3559 highlights key levels at 38.2% ($0.3638) and 61.8% ($0.3598), where price may find temporary support or resistance.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

The highest volume spike occurred at $0.3613, where a large sell-off pushed price lower, confirming bearish conviction. Another volume-driven move occurred at $0.3673, where a late-ET rally was met with selling pressure and failed to break above $0.3645.

Notional turnover increased during the late-ET buying attempt, but price failed to maintain gains, suggesting volume-led selling pressure was stronger. Divergence between price and volume near $0.3620 indicates weaker buying interest and possible exhaustion.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest strategy could involve shorting ALICEUSDT on a close below $0.3620, with a stop loss above $0.3645 and a take profit at $0.3590, using the death cross and RSI oversold bounce as confirmation signals. Additionally, a long bias could be triggered on a retest of $0.3630 with volume above average, assuming a bullish engulfing pattern forms. This approach would aim to capture short-term swings in a volatile, range-bound market.