MyNeighborAlice/Tether (ALICEUSDT) Market Overview

• ALICE/USDT drifted lower in a bearish consolidation pattern, closing near session lows.
• Momentum indicators suggest oversold conditions emerged by the final 15-minute candle.
• Daily Bollinger Bands constrict as volatility subsides, hinting at a potential breakout.
• On-chain volume increased in the final hours, suggesting accumulation or distribution activity.
• A sharp retracement to the 38.2% Fibonacci level may trigger near-term support testing.

MyNeighborAlice/Tether (ALICEUSDT) opened at $0.2726 on 2025-11-02 12:00 ET and drifted lower throughout the session, hitting a high of $0.2759 and a low of $0.2305 before closing at $0.2443 at 12:00 ET on 2025-11-03. Total trading volume for the 24-hour period was 6,363,734.42 ALICE, with a notional turnover of $1,573,440.50. The pair appears to be entering a consolidation phase with mixed bearish and possible oversold signals.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute candlestick pattern reveals a bearish drift dominated by lower highs and failed bullish attempts. Key support levels emerged around $0.2543 (daily low) and $0.26 (prior resistance-turned-support). Notable candlestick formations include a bearish engulfing pattern at 19:30 ET and a potential hammer at 08:00 ET, indicating minor bounces. A doji at 09:00 ET suggests indecision among traders ahead of a potential trend reversal.

Moving Averages

Short-term momentum (20/50 SMA on 15-minute chart) shows the price has moved below both, reinforcing bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200 SMA alignment indicates a medium-term bearish structure with the 50 SMA crossing below the 100 SMA to confirm a potential death cross. The price remains below the 200 SMA, signaling continued bearish momentum.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram contracted through the session, showing waning momentum in the bearish move. RSI dropped below 30 by the final hour, indicating oversold conditions, though a divergence is not yet evident. This could signal a potential bounce in the short term if volume increases with a reversal candle. However, the RSI remains below 40, suggesting further consolidation is likely before a meaningful reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands have shown a clear narrowing trend, with the last 15 minutes sitting near the lower band at $0.2443. Volatility contraction suggests a potential breakout or breakdown in the near term. If the price remains below the $0.2543 level, the bands may widen to the downside, reinforcing bearish momentum.

Volume & Turnover

Volume increased significantly in the last 4.5 hours of the session, with the 153000 ET candle seeing over 620,000 ALICE traded. Turnover surged to $157,000 in the final hour, which could indicate accumulation or a short-covering move. Price and turnover aligned on the downward move, suggesting the bearish trend remains intact unless a sharp increase in volume accompanies a reversal pattern.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the price is currently near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level from the $0.244–$0.2759 swing. On the daily chart, it is approaching the 61.8% retracement level of the same range. These levels could provide temporary support or trigger a short-term bounce if bulls intervene.

Backtest Hypothesis

To evaluate the recent bearish momentum in ALICE/USDT, a potential backtest strategy involves entering a long position when RSI(14) drops below 30 and exits after a 5-day hold. This oversold strategy assumes that the market will rebound after a significant downtrend. However, the absence of valid RSI data for the pair limits the ability to execute the backtest. To proceed, the correct ticker symbol or data format must be identified—such as “ALICEUSDT.P” or another exchange-specific identifier. Alternatively, if the investor can provide the RSI data directly, the backtest can be run using historical price levels to evaluate profitability and risk metrics.