MyNeighborAlice/Tether (ALICEUSDT) Market Overview

• Price dropped to a 24-hour low of $0.3042 amid bearish divergence in momentum.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed on 2025-10-04 15:30 ET, confirming a potential breakdown.
• Volume increased significantly near the breakdown, confirming bearish sentiment.
• RSI entered oversold territory near the close, but price remains below key support at $0.315.
• Bollinger Bands showed a contraction earlier, but the recent move below the lower band signals increased bearish volatility.

The MyNeighborAlice/Tether (ALICEUSDT) pair opened at $0.3201 on 2025-10-03 12:00 ET and closed at $0.3107 the following day. The 24-hour session saw a high of $0.3264, a low of $0.3042, and total trading volume of 2,693,723.76 ALICE, with notional turnover of $836,686.40. The price action was bearish, with a breakdown confirmed by volume and candlestick patterns.

Structure & Formations

A distinct breakdown occurred on 2025-10-04 15:30 ET, marked by a large bearish engulfing candle that closed near the session's low. A doji also appeared earlier at $0.3192, signaling indecision before the move lower. Key support levels include $0.315 and $0.308, with the former holding as a psychological floor. Resistance appears at $0.3195 and $0.323, where the pair had previously failed to hold.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both in a bearish alignment, with the 20SMA crossing below the 50SMA earlier in the session. On the daily chart, the 50DMA, 100DMA, and 200DMA are all in a bearish alignment, with price sitting comfortably below all three. The pair may continue testing key support levels for confirmation of a short-term downtrend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative earlier in the session and remained below zero, with the signal line crossing to confirm bearish momentum. The RSI reached a low of 24.5 near the session close, indicating oversold conditions. However, a divergence between price and RSI suggests that further downside could be limited without a significant bearish catalyst.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a period of contraction earlier in the session before expanding downward as price broke below the lower band. Price currently sits within the lower band, with the lower bound at $0.3091 and the upper bound at $0.3235. The widening of the bands suggests increasing volatility, favoring bearish traders for now.

Volume & Turnover

Volume increased significantly during the breakdown, especially between 15:30 ET and 16:00 ET, confirming bearish momentum. Notional turnover peaked during this window at $163,547.52, showing strong participation. No significant divergence between price and volume was observed, suggesting the breakdown was well-supported by market action.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the breakdown to $0.3042 aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the previous upward swing. Daily retracement levels suggest that $0.308 is the next key psychological support. If the price breaks below this, the next target would be around $0.303, with a 38.2% retracement of the current downtrend expected at $0.304.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering short positions on a breakdown of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, confirmed by a bearish engulfing pattern and a close below the lower Bollinger Band. The stop-loss could be placed just above the most recent swing high at $0.311, with a take-profit target at the next significant support level at $0.308. This strategy aligns with the observed bearish momentum and could be optimized by incorporating time-based filters, such as avoiding trades in the first hour of the session when volatility tends to normalize.