MyNeighborAlice/Tether (ALICEUSDT) Market Overview

• ALICEUSDT dropped 23.7% from $0.3603 to $0.3193 over 24 hours, reaching a 4-month low.
• Momentum weakened with RSI below 30 and bearish divergence in price vs. volume.
• A key support zone was tested at $0.319–$0.320, showing mixed resilience.
• Volatility expanded mid-day before stabilizing into a range-bound pattern in the afternoon.
• High-volume breakdown below $0.3329 confirmed bearish continuation into the morning.

At 12:00 ET–1 on 2025-09-21, ALICEUSDT opened at $0.3581 and traded as high as $0.3604 before closing at $0.3193 on 2025-09-22 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour low was $0.3123. Total volume was 3.4 million coins, and notional turnover reached $1.14 million, marking a sharp drop in liquidity.

Structure & Formations

ALICEUSDT broke below a key support level at $0.3329, confirming a bearish structure with a breakdown candle on the 15-minute chart. A bearish engulfing pattern formed around $0.3367, followed by a strong selloff to $0.3200. Price then consolidated in a tight range between $0.319–$0.323 before settling at $0.3193. A potential support area appears to be forming between $0.318–$0.320, with a doji forming near $0.3200 suggesting a potential short-term pause in the decline.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price has closed below both the 20-EMA and 50-EMA, reinforcing the bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50- and 100-SMA are converging downward, with price trading well below the 200-SMA — a strong bearish signal. The 100-SMA now sits at ~$0.328, which may become a short-term resistance if buyers show up.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed below zero with a bearish crossover, and the histogram is contracting slightly after a large bearish bar. The RSI has entered oversold territory at ~28, suggesting a potential rebound could be near. However, the divergence between price and RSI indicates a lack of buying interest at lower levels. A sharp recovery without a surge in volume would likely be short-lived.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded during the early morning hours before narrowing into a tighter range between $0.319–$0.323. Price currently trades near the lower Bollinger Band, indicating it is oversold. If volatility remains low, a mean-reversion bounce may be possible, but a break below the band could signal deeper bearish momentum.

Volume & Turnover

Trading volume spiked during the breakdown below $0.3329 with over 1.4 million coins traded in a single 15-minute interval. However, as price fell to $0.3193, volume declined sharply, suggesting weak follow-through. This divergence between price and volume raises caution about the sustainability of the recent move. The final 15-minute candle at $0.3193 closed on weak volume and showed no signs of a bottoming accumulation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 15-minute move from $0.3603 to $0.3193, key levels include 61.8% at $0.3345 and 38.2% at $0.3453. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement of the recent leg down is at $0.3378, which could serve as a short-term resistance if price retraces upward.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy described involves entering a short position when price breaks below a key support level (defined as a swing low confirmed by volume) and exits when price reaches a 20-EMA on the 15-minute chart. This approach aligns with the observed structure in ALICEUSDT, where a bearish breakout was confirmed by volume and a subsequent move below the 20-EMA occurred. However, the recent oversold RSI reading and tightening Bollinger Bands suggest that a stop-loss may need to be placed near $0.315 to avoid false breakouts or snapbacks. The strategy could be backtested over similar moves in the past two months to gauge its robustness in volatile altcoin environments.