What If Musk Falls Out of Trump's Favor?

There's no doubt that Musk's unwavering support for Trump during the election has paid off tremendously. After taking office, Trump appointed Musk as the head of the so-called Department of Government Efficiency, a move that led some observers to dub Musk the "co-president." Despite holding no formal position in the federal government, Musk wielded far more power than many senior officials.

However, early cracks may now be forming in their relationship.     

Musk's aggressive cost-cutting and mass layoffs have angered members of Trump's cabinet. According to The New York Times, tensions over Musk's role flared at a recent cabinet meeting. Several officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, openly challenged Musk's widespread dismissals and his often-sarcastic remarks about federal employees.

While Trump has reaffirmed his support for Musk, he has also moved to curb his authority, making it clear that cabinet secretaries will have the final say on staffing decisions, with Musk's department serving only in an advisory capacity.

Soon after, Musk publicly called for drastic cuts to social welfare programs in a televised interview—directly contradicting Trump's pledge to protect Social Security and Medicare.

History Suggests Musk May Be Next

It's worth noting that many business moguls have entered Trump's inner circle, only to fall from grace quickly.

Former ExxonMobil CEO Rex Tillerson was appointed Secretary of State, bringing his global business expertise and Texas-style leadership to Washington. But within a year, he was ousted due to policy disagreements, a power struggle with Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner, and reports that he privately called Trump a "moron."

Similarly, Gary Cohn, the former Goldman Sachs COO, lasted just one year as Director of the National Economic Council. He resigned after clashing with Trump over tariffs and growing frustrated with Trump's response to the 2017 Charlottesville white supremacist violence.

If Musk meets a similar fate, the risks could be even greater for him.  Unlike Tillerson and Cohn, Musk has deeply intertwined his personal brand and corporate strategy with Trump's administration. Any fallout could leave both him and his companies in a highly vulnerable position.

A Fragile Alliance—For Now

At the moment, the relationship remains mutually beneficial.  Musk continues to wield significant influence over Trump, particularly in regulatory matters and securing government contracts. Meanwhile, Trump benefits from Musk's wealth, public reach, and control over social media platform X, which amplifies Trump's messaging within the federal government.

However, recent events have highlighted the instability of their alliance.  Trump's decision to transform the White House into a Tesla showroom this week—ostensibly to show support for Musk—ironically exposed their fragile ties.  A thriving brand shouldn't require the president to publicly threaten protesters, labeling them as domestic terrorists.

If Trump faces backlash over social security cuts or an economic downturn, Musk could quickly become his scapegoat. After all, the two were bitter rivals before their political alliance formed last year, repeatedly attacking each other in public.

Reports suggest that Musk is now seeking to donate another $100 million to Trump's re-election campaign—raising concerns about cronyism while signaling that Musk may be trying to renew his membership in Trump's circle.

Who Holds the Upper Hand?   

If the alliance crumbles, who would come out on top? Trump may miss Musk's financial backing, social media influence, and algorithmic support on X. However, history has shown that Trump's core voter base remains unwavering, and since he is no longer eligible for re-election, his personal dependence on Musk may be limited.

On the other hand, Trump could use federal agencies and his loyalists to pressure Musk's businesses, creating significant obstacles for any potential retaliation.

Musk has embedded politics deeply into Tesla and his other ventures, but now he must confront a harsh reality: Everything Trump has given him, Trump can just as easily take away.