Murphy USA Shares Plummet 11.16% on $480M Trading Surge, Ranking 304th Amid Oversold Signal

On July 31, 2025, Murphy USA (MUSA) experienced a significant drop in share price, falling 11.16% to close the day. The stock saw a surge in trading activity, with a volume of $0.48 billion—164.37% higher than the previous day—ranking it 304th in the market. The decline coincided with a technical indicator suggesting the stock had entered oversold territory, with an RSI of 29.5, below the 30 threshold typically signaling potential buying opportunities for investors.

Recent developments highlighted mixed signals for the company. Institutional investor TCW Group Inc. reduced its stake by 8.2% in Q1, reflecting cautious positioning. Meanwhile, Murphy USA’s Q2 earnings report showed a $7.36 EPS, exceeding estimates but accompanied by an 8.2% year-over-year revenue decline. Analyst ratings remained fragmented, with Raymond James downgrading the stock to “Market Perform” in May, while others like KeyCorp maintained “Overweight” designations. These divergent views underscored uncertainty about the stock’s near-term trajectory.

The company’s financial health also drew attention. A recent refinancing facility of $1.4 billion and a modest dividend increase to $0.50 per share indicated efforts to stabilize operations. However, the elevated debt-to-equity ratio of 2.74 and a payout ratio of 8.44% raised concerns about long-term sustainability. Insider activity added nuance: Director David C. Haley’s $435,580 investment in May contrasted with broader institutional减持, suggesting mixed sentiment among stakeholders.

Historical trading strategies showed strong performance in high-liquidity environments. A backtested approach of purchasing top 500 stocks by daily trading volume and holding for one day yielded 166.71% from 2022 to 2025, outperforming the benchmark by 137.53%. This success was attributed to momentum-driven liquidity shifts, as seen in stocks like VICI Properties and Eli Lilly. However, such strategies remain sensitive to evolving market dynamics, emphasizing the need for caution in relying solely on short-term liquidity patterns.