Mural Oncology Plummets 21.77% on Total R&D Shutdown and Cash Burn: A Biotech Meltdown in Real Time

Summary
• Mural Oncology (MURA) drops 21.77% to $1.815 amid full discontinuation of R&D programs
• Q2 2025 net loss widens to ($2.78) per share, driven by $17.5M restructuring charges
• Cash reserves shrink to $77.1M, down from $144.4M in December 2024
• Intraday range of $1.53–$2.30 highlights extreme volatility as company pivots to strategic alternatives

Today’s collapse in Mural Oncology’s stock price reflects a seismic shift in the company’s strategy. With all clinical programs terminated and a staggering Q2 loss, the biotech’s pivot to a wind-down mode has triggered a liquidity crisis. Investors now face a stark choice: bet on a potential acquisition or accept a near-term liquidation scenario.

R&D Shutdown and Restructuring Costs Trigger Liquidity Crisis
Mural Oncology’s 21.77% intraday plunge stems from the company’s abrupt discontinuation of all R&D programs, including its lead candidate nemvaleukin alfa, and a $17.5M restructuring charge in Q2 2025. The decision to halt clinical trials and cut 90% of its workforce has accelerated cash burn, reducing reserves to $77.1M as of June 30, 2025. With no new revenue streams and only $43–48M projected by year-end, the stock’s collapse reflects investor panic over the lack of strategic clarity and the absence of a viable path to profitability.

Biotech Sector Volatility: MURA Trails Peers Amid Strategic Uncertainty
The biotech sector remains volatile, with MURA’s 19.85% drop outpacing peers like Zentalis Pharmaceuticals (ZNTL, +5.22%) and Connect Biopharma (CNTB, -1.49%). While ZNTL and GRCE (Grace Therapeutics, +1.74%) show resilience amid sector-wide R&D cuts, MURA’s lack of a clear strategic alternative—such as a merger or acquisition—has exacerbated its decline. The sector’s mixed performance underscores the high-risk nature of biotech companies in wind-down modes.

Bearish Options and ETF Plays in a Collapsing Biotech
• 200-day average: 3.086 (far above current price)
• RSI: 27.08 (oversold)
• MACD: -0.0505 (bearish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at 2.30 (near lower band at 2.29)
• K-line pattern: Short-term bearish trend with long-term bearish bias

The technicals confirm a deteriorating outlook. MURA’s price is far below its 200-day MA and RSI is in oversold territory, suggesting potential for further declines. For aggressive bearish bets, consider the MURA20251219C2.5 and MURA20260320C2.5 calls. These contracts offer high leverage (36.40% and 12.13%, respectively) and moderate delta (0.19 and 0.34), ideal for short-term bearish scenarios. Both options have high implied volatility (48.13% and 57.57%) and strong liquidity (turnover of 2,483 and 1,275).

MURA20251219C2.5:
• Code: MURA20251219C2.5
• Type: Call
• Strike Price: $2.50
• Expiration: 2025-12-19
• IV: 48.13% (high volatility)
• Leverage Ratio: 36.40% (high)
• Delta: 0.191984 (moderate)
• Theta: -0.000625 (time decay)
• Turnover: 2,483
• Gamma: 0.507011 (high sensitivity)
This contract is ideal for a 5% downside scenario. With a strike price of $2.50 and high gamma, it amplifies losses as the stock falls further. Projected payoff: $0 (stock below strike).

MURA20260320C2.5:
• Code: MURA20260320C2.5
• Type: Call
• Strike Price: $2.50
• Expiration: 2026-03-20
• IV: 57.57% (extreme volatility)
• Leverage Ratio: 12.13% (moderate)
• Delta: 0.340931 (moderate)
• Theta: -0.000752 (time decay)
• Turnover: 1,275
• Gamma: 0.441938 (high sensitivity)
This option offers a longer time horizon but still benefits from a prolonged decline. Projected payoff: $0 (stock below strike).

Aggressive bearish bet: Short the MURA20251219C2.5 into a breakdown below $2.30. If the stock hits $1.50, this call could lose 80% of its value, offering a 5x return on a wrong-way trade.

Backtest Mural Oncology Stock Performance
The backtest of MURA's performance after a -22% intraday plunge shows mixed results over different time frames. While the 3-day win rate is 42.64%, indicating a higher probability of a positive return in the short term, the 10-day win rate is 47.72% and the 30-day win rate is 55.84%, suggesting that longer-term returns are more consistently positive. The maximum return during the backtest period was 8.59%, which occurred on day 56, indicating that while MURA can recover from a significant intraday plunge, the pace of recovery varies.

MURA’s Death Spiral: Time to Exit or Hunt for a White Knight
Mural Oncology’s collapse is far from over. With cash reserves dwindling and no clear path to a strategic transaction, the stock is likely to test its 52-week low of $0.95. Investors should monitor the $1.50 support level and watch for any signs of a potential acquirer or liquidation. Meanwhile, Amgen (AMGN), the sector leader with a 1.28% intraday gain, highlights the contrast between stable pharma giants and struggling biotechs. For MURA, the only catalysts left are a sudden acquisition or a miraculous reversal of its R&D strategy—neither of which seems imminent. Exit long positions and consider shorting with the options outlined above.