MTN Group's (JSE:MTN) Remarkable Total Shareholder Return: Assessing Sustainability and Future Growth in a Maturing Telecom Giant

MTN Group (JSE:MTN), Africa's largest telecommunications company, has long been a cornerstone of the continent's digital infrastructure. Over the past five years, the firm has delivered a total shareholder return (TSR) of 158%, a figure that, while impressive, falls short of the 209% often cited in market discussions. This discrepancy underscores the importance of scrutinizing the sustainability of MTN's growth and its ability to maintain momentum in a maturing industry. Recent financial results, however, suggest that the company is recalibrating its strategy to drive long-term value creation.

A Turnaround in Performance

MTN's recent performance has been nothing short of transformative. In Q3 2025, the group surpassed 300 million subscribers, adding 9 million users in just three months. This growth was fueled by a 25.9% year-on-year revenue increase, driven by robust expansion in Nigeria and Ghana, as well as rising data consumption across key markets. Service revenue grew by 22.6%, with data revenue surging 34.3% due to a 10.3% rise in active data subscribers to 164.4 million. These figures highlight MTN's pivot toward high-margin data services, a critical shift in an industry where voice revenue is increasingly commoditized.

The turnaround in MTN Nigeria, the group's largest market, has been particularly noteworthy. After years of regulatory and operational challenges, the subsidiary reported double-digit growth across all segments and restored positive equity, enabling the resumption of dividend payments. This recovery not only stabilizes MTN's core earnings but also signals improved governance and stakeholder confidence.

Fintech: A New Engine for Growth

MTN's fintech arm, MoMo, has emerged as a key growth driver. In Q3 2025, fintech revenue grew by 35.7%, with the value of transactions reaching $342 billion. Active MoMo users climbed to 64 million, cementing MTN's leadership in digital financial services. In Nigeria alone, fintech revenue surged 72.5%, supported by 2.9 million active wallets and a 73.6% increase in agents. This expansion into financial services diversifies MTN's revenue streams and taps into Africa's rapidly growing unbanked population, a demographic that could sustain growth for decades.

The strategic re-engineering of MoMo's operating framework-focusing on agent quality, merchant coverage, and customer engagement-has improved financial inclusion metrics. By 2025, MTN's fintech initiatives had contributed significantly to its EBITDA margins, which expanded to 45.0%. This diversification reduces reliance on traditional telecom margins and positions the group to capitalize on the continent's digital economy.

Capital Allocation and Strategic Partnerships

MTN's capital expenditure in Q3 2025 reached R27.9 billion, maintaining a capex intensity of 16.8%. This investment prioritizes data infrastructure and fintech capabilities, ensuring the company remains competitive in a market where 5G and AI-driven services are becoming table stakes. The recent partnership with Microsoft to deploy AI-powered education and productivity tools across Africa further underscores MTN's ambition to lead in digital transformation. Such alliances not only enhance MTN's technological edge but also open new revenue avenues in enterprise and government sectors. Financially, MTN remains resilient. Its net-debt-to-EBITDA ratio stood at 0.4x as of September 2025, a level that provides flexibility for further investments or shareholder returns. This balance sheet strength is critical in an industry where capex demands are high and regulatory risks persist.

Sustainability and Risks

While MTN's recent performance is compelling, sustainability hinges on navigating several challenges. Market saturation in core markets like Nigeria and Ghana could pressure subscriber growth, necessitating expansion into underserved regions such as East and Southern Africa. Regulatory scrutiny, particularly around data privacy and antitrust concerns, remains a wildcard. Additionally, the fintech sector's competitive landscape is intensifying, with local players and global tech firms vying for market share.

However, MTN's scale, brand strength, and first-mover advantage in fintech provide a buffer. The company's ability to integrate AI and cloud services-via partnerships like the one with Microsoft-could differentiate it from rivals. Moreover, its focus on agent networks and merchant ecosystems in fintech creates a sticky user base that is difficult to replicate.

Conclusion

MTN Group's 158% five-year TSR reflects a strategic rebalancing toward high-growth segments like data and fintech. While the 209% figure cited in some market discussions may stem from a different time frame or calculation method, the company's recent performance validates its potential to deliver sustained value. With a robust balance sheet, a diversified revenue model, and a clear focus on innovation, MTN is well-positioned to navigate the maturing telecom landscape. For investors, the key question is whether the group can maintain its agility in an era of rapid technological change-a challenge it appears ready to meet.