MSTR Surges 5.8% on Bitcoin Buy, Short-Term Bearish Trend Puzzles Traders

Summary
• MicroStrategy (MSTR) surges 5.82% to $387.98, driven by Bitcoin purchase announcement and $2.46B ATM offering
• Leveraged ETF MSTU rockets 11.34% as MSTR’s bullish momentum spills into derivatives
• Intraday range widens to $366.20–$388.88, signaling aggressive volatility amid 3.26% turnover rate
• Sector peers lag: Salesforce (CRM) gains 0.69%, underscoring MSTR’s divergence from software sector trends

MicroStrategy’s sharp intraday rebound has ignited a frenzy in options and leveraged ETFs, with Bitcoin-related capital deployment and high-yield ATM issuance fueling speculation. Traders are dissecting the $387.98 level against short-term bearish indicators and long-term bullish fundamentals, while leveraged products like MSTU and MSTX amplify exposure to the stock’s volatility.

Bitcoin Appetite Drives MSTR's Intraday Surge
MicroStrategy’s 5.82% rally stems from its aggressive Bitcoin acquisition strategy, with $2.46B allocated to purchase 21,021 BTC at $117K average. The stock’s momentum is further amplified by its recent $2.52B preferred stock offering, which funds Bitcoin buys while signaling management’s bullish conviction. This move aligns with CEO Michael Saylor’s long-term thesis that Bitcoin will become a core corporate asset, driving demand for MSTR’s stock as both a tech play and digital gold proxy.

Software Sector Diverges as MSTR Defies Peers
MSTU, MSTX Lead as MSTR’s Volatility Plays: Options Breakdown
• 200-day average: 343.89 (below current price)
• RSI: 19.16 (oversold)
• Bollinger Bands: Upper $462.61, Middle $416.81 (current price $387.98 near lower band)
• MACD: -2.197 (bearish) vs. Signal Line 4.869
• Gamma: 0.015–0.017 (high sensitivity to price shifts)

Traders should focus on bullish setups near $384–$389 resistance (200D support-turned-resistance) and $366.63 prior close as a short-term floor. Bold ETFs like MSTU (2X leveraged) and MSTX (2X daily target) offer amplified exposure to MSTR’s volatility, while options buyers can capitalize on high gamma and moderate delta. Here are two top options:

1. MSTR20250808C395
• Call, Strike $395, Expiry 2025-08-08
• IV: 53.82% (moderate)
• LVR: 54.75% (high leverage)
• Delta: 0.4149 (moderate)
• Theta: -2.2588 (high time decay)
• Gamma: 0.0159 (high sensitivity)
• Turnover: $2.58B (liquid)
• Payoff at 5% upside: $40.73 per contract
This call offers a high-risk, high-reward trade for aggressive bulls expecting a breakout above $395. The 53.82% IV and 54.75% leverage ratio amplify gains in a directional move.

2. MSTR20250808C390
• Call, Strike $390, Expiry 2025-08-08
• IV: 52.18% (moderate)
• LVR: 43.43% (high leverage)
• Delta: 0.4939 (moderate)
• Theta: -2.4956 (high time decay)
• Gamma: 0.0168 (high sensitivity)
• Turnover: $3.44B (liquid)
• Payoff at 5% upside: $48.98 per contract
This contract balances leverage (43.43%) and liquidity ($3.44B turnover), making it ideal for traders expecting a sustained rally above $390. The 52.18% IV suggests market anticipation of further volatility.

Aggressive bulls should target MSTR20250808C390 if MSTR breaks above $390.50. Cautious buyers may trail MSTR20250808C395 for a breakout above $395.00.

Backtest Microstrategy Stock Performance
The backtest of MicroStrategy (MSTR) following a 6% intraday increase shows impressive results, with a strategy return of 2,912.60% and an excess return of 2,833.49%. The strategy achieved a maximum drawdown of 0.00%, indicating no losses during the backtest period, and a Sharpe ratio of 1.01, suggesting good risk-adjusted returns.

Bullish Setup Confirmed: Aggressive Play on MSTR's 5% Upside
The current setup favors aggressive longs, with MSTR’s 5.82% surge and 52W high of $543 suggesting a multi-phase rally is underway. While the RSI at 19.16 indicates oversold conditions, the short-term bearish trend (Kline pattern) warns of potential pullbacks. Traders should watch the $384–$389 resistance zone and 200D average ($343.89) as a baseline. Salesforce (CRM), the sector leader, gained 0.69% today, underscoring MSTR’s divergence from broader software trends. Watch for a breakout above $390.50 or a breakdown below $366.63 to trigger directional trades. Aggressive bulls should target MSTR20250808C390 for a 5% upside play.