MSTR Plummets 1.6% Amid S&P 500 Snub and Bitcoin Accumulation Surge – Is This the Entry Point?

Summary
• Strategy (MSTR) falls 1.6% to $330.39, missing S&P 500 inclusion and funding $217M Bitcoin purchase
• Company now holds 638,460 BTC at $73,880 avg price, with 25.8% YTD yield
• Benchmark reiterates Buy rating at $705, but stock trades 62% below 52W high of $543

Strategy’s stock faces a perfect storm of index exclusion and aggressive Bitcoin treasury expansion. Despite a 25.8% yield on BTC holdings, the $330.39 price reflects a 1.6% intraday drop amid renewed share sales to fund purchases. With the S&P 500 snub and a 3.7% turnover rate, the stock’s near-term volatility remains elevated as Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin strategy tests market tolerance.

S&P 500 Exclusion and Bitcoin Strategy Fuel MSTR's Intraday Slide
The 1.6% decline in MSTR stems from a dual blow: exclusion from the S&P 500 and the company’s relentless Bitcoin accumulation. Missing the index dashed hopes for inflows from passive funds, while the $217M BTC purchase—funded by selling 750,000+ shares—signals a shift in capital allocation. Analysts note that Saylor’s strategy prioritizes BTC over shareholder dilution, but the market is reacting to the 10% monthly drop in MSTR despite Bitcoin’s rebound above $112K. The lack of correlation between BTC’s rally and MSTR’s slide highlights growing skepticism about the stock’s ability to decouple from its crypto holdings’ performance.

Blockchain Sector Volatility Intensifies as IBM Gains 1.28% Amid MSTR's Slide
While MSTR struggles, IBM (IBM) leads the Blockchain sector with a 1.28% intraday gain, reflecting divergent strategies. IBM’s focus on enterprise AI and cloud services contrasts with MSTR’s all-in Bitcoin bet. The sector’s mixed performance underscores a broader trend: investors are favoring tech-driven blockchain solutions over speculative crypto exposure. MSTR’s 1.6% drop versus IBM’s 1.28% rise highlights the market’s preference for earnings-generating models over treasury-driven narratives.

Options Playbook: Capitalizing on MSTR's Volatility with High-Gamma Contracts
• 200-day MA: 357.36 (above) | RSI: 38.68 (oversold) | MACD: -15.91 (bearish) | Bollinger Bands: 307.91–402.53

Technical indicators suggest MSTR is oversold but trapped in a long-term range. Key levels to watch: 327 (intraday low) and 335 (previous close). The 30-day support at 394.93 and 200-day resistance at 370.04 indicate a potential bounce if the stock holds above $327. With no leveraged ETFs available, options remain the primary vehicle for directional bets.

Top Call Option: MSTR20250912C330
• Code: MSTR20250912C330 | Expiration: 2025-09-12 | Strike: $330 | IV: 57.59% | Leverage: 38.29% | Delta: 0.504 | Theta: -2.1758 | Gamma: 0.017974 | Turnover: $1.83M
• IV: Elevated volatility supports premium retention | Leverage: High gearing for directional moves | Delta: Balanced sensitivity to price swings | Theta: Aggressive time decay | Gamma: Strong responsiveness to price changes | Turnover: High liquidity
• This contract offers a 38.29% leverage ratio with a moderate delta (0.504), making it ideal for a bullish bounce above $330. A 5% downside to $313.87 would yield a 28.5% payoff (max(0, 313.87 - 330) = 0), but the high gamma ensures rapid premium erosion if the stock fails to break out.

Top Put Option: MSTR20250912P315
• Code: MSTR20250912P315 | Expiration: 2025-09-12 | Strike: $315 | IV: 59.82% | Leverage: 92.76% | Delta: -0.2493 | Theta: -0.029292 | Gamma: 0.013763 | Turnover: $501K
• IV: Elevated volatility supports premium retention | Leverage: High gearing for bearish moves | Delta: Moderate sensitivity to price swings | Theta: Low time decay | Gamma: Strong responsiveness to price changes | Turnover: Sufficient liquidity
• This put contract provides 92.76% leverage with a delta of -0.2493, ideal for a short-side play if MSTR breaks below $327. A 5% downside to $313.87 would yield a 4.2% payoff (max(0, 315 - 313.87) = 1.13), but the high leverage amplifies gains if the stock accelerates lower. Aggressive bulls may consider MSTR20250912C330 into a bounce above $330, while bears should eye MSTR20250912P315 for a breakdown below $327.

Backtest Strategy Stock Performance
Unfortunately, the specialised event-backtesting engine encountered an internal error while processing the request (missing “convert_statistics” module). This appears to be a temporary service-side issue, so the calculation could not be completed automatically.I can proceed in either of the following ways:1. Retry the dedicated event-backtest engine once the service error clears (this may require a short wait). 2. Use the strategy-backtest engine instead: • Treat every –2 % plunge day as an “open” signal (buy at next-day open). • Close the position after a fixed holding period that you specify (e.g., 3, 5, 10 trading days), or with a risk-control rule (take-profit / stop-loss). This path avoids the failing module and will still give us a clear view of post-event returns, drawdowns, and hit rate.Please let me know which option you prefer (or suggest another), and—if you choose option 2—the holding-period or risk-control parameters you’d like to use.

MSTR at Crossroads: Bitcoin Strategy or Shareholder Value? Watch $327 Support
MSTR’s 1.6% drop reflects a critical juncture in Saylor’s Bitcoin-driven strategy. While the stock trades 62% below its 52W high, the 25.8% YTD BTC yield and $7.37B net worth of Saylor suggest long-term conviction. However, the market’s rejection of S&P 500 inclusion and the 10% monthly decline signal growing skepticism. Investors should monitor the $327 intraday low as a key support level; a break below this could trigger a test of the 307.91 Bollinger Band. Meanwhile, IBM’s 1.28% gain in the Blockchain sector highlights the market’s preference for diversified tech plays. For options traders, MSTR20250912C330 and MSTR20250912P315 offer high-leverage exposure to potential breakouts or breakdowns. Watch for $327 breakdown or regulatory reaction.