MSTR Plummets 3.28% Amid Bitcoin Hoarding Spree—What’s Fueling the Selloff?

Summary
• MSTR shares trade at $346.38, down 3.28% intraday amid a $356.9M Bitcoin purchase
• Company now holds 632,457 BTC at $73,527 avg. price, valued at $70.2B
• Bitcoin’s 3.38% weekly drop and equity dilution via common stock sales spark investor backlash

MicroStrategy’s (MSTR) stock has plunged over 3% in volatile intraday trading, despite a $356.9M Bitcoin accumulation last week. The selloff coincides with a 3.38% weekly decline in BTC prices and a controversial funding strategy involving common stock sales. With the stock trading near its 200-day moving average of $355.15, traders are scrutinizing technical levels and options activity for clues about the next move.

Bitcoin Accumulation Sparks Investor Backlash as Funding Strategy Unveiled
MicroStrategy’s 3,081 BTC purchase—funded by $300.9M in common stock sales—has triggered a sharp selloff. The company’s revised pledge to issue equity below 2.5x mNAV (market net asset value) has eroded investor trust, particularly as Bitcoin’s 3.38% weekly drop has reduced the value of its BTC holdings by $6.3B. The move to dilute shareholders while Bitcoin struggles below $115,000 has intensified bearish sentiment, with the stock now trading near critical support levels.

Blockchain Sector Splits as MSTR’s Selloff Contrasts with RIOT’s Resilience
While MSTR tumbles, Riot Platforms (RIOT) has edged up 0.04% as the sector leader. The blockchain space remains fragmented: Bitcoin’s 3.38% weekly decline has pressured BTC-linked equities, but miners like RIOT have shown resilience amid improved operational efficiency. MSTR’s unique BTC treasury model, however, has isolated it from broader sector trends, with its equity dilution strategy creating a distinct narrative divergence.

Options Playbook: Capitalizing on MSTR’s Volatility with High-Leverage Contracts
• 200-day MA: $355.15 (below current price)
• RSI: 39.71 (oversold territory)
• MACD: -14.62 (bearish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: $334.77–$422.35 (wide range)
• Key support/resistance: $334.77 (lower band), $355.15 (200D MA), $378.56 (middle band)

With MSTR trading near its 200-day moving average and RSI in oversold territory, traders should focus on short-term volatility. The $340–$350 range is critical: a break below $340 could trigger a test of the $334.77 Bollinger Band support, while a rebound above $355.15 may reignite bullish momentum. The options chain reveals two high-leverage contracts worth monitoring:

• MSTR20250829C360 (Call, $360 strike, 8/29 expiry):
- IV: 62.52% (moderate)
- Leverage: 74.74% (high)
- Delta: 0.299 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -1.719 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.01375 (strong price sensitivity)
- Turnover: $3.65M (liquid)
- Payoff (5% downside): $0.00 (call option expires worthless)
- This contract offers aggressive leverage for bulls expecting a rebound above $360, though its high theta means time decay will accelerate as expiry nears.

• MSTR20250829C365 (Call, $365 strike, 8/29 expiry):
- IV: 63.33% (moderate)
- Leverage: 98.65% (extreme)
- Delta: 0.241 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -1.475 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.01216 (strong price sensitivity)
- Turnover: $1.55M (liquid)
- Payoff (5% downside): $0.00 (call option expires worthless)
- This high-leverage contract is ideal for aggressive bulls targeting a breakout above $365, but its high theta and gamma require precise timing. A sharp move above $365 could trigger gamma-driven acceleration.

If $340 breaks, consider MSTR20250829P345 (Put, $345 strike) for short-side exposure.

Backtest Strategy Stock Performance
The backtest of MicroStrategy (MSTR) after a -3% intraday plunge shows favorable performance, with win rates and returns indicating positive short-to-medium-term gains. Here's a detailed analysis:1. Event Frequency and Win Rates: - The event occurred 604 times over the backtested period. - The 3-day win rate was 55.63%, the 10-day win rate was 57.95%, and the 30-day win rate was 64.90%.2. Returns: - The average 3-day return was 1.63%. - The average 10-day return was 4.50%. - The average 30-day return was 14.78%. - The maximum return during the backtest was 26.10%, achieved on day 59 after the event.3. Conclusion: Backtesting suggests that MSTR often rebounds after a -3% intraday plunge, with a higher probability of positive returns in the short to medium term.

MSTR’s Crucial $340 Support Test—What Traders Must Do Now
The $340 level is a make-or-break threshold for MSTR: a close below this would confirm a breakdown to the $334.77 Bollinger Band support, while a rebound above $355.15 could reignite bullish momentum. With Bitcoin’s 3.38% weekly decline pressuring BTC-linked equities, traders should monitor the $340–$350 range for directional bias. Sector leader RIOT’s 0.04% gain highlights the blockchain space’s mixed performance, but MSTR’s unique equity dilution strategy remains a standalone risk. Aggressive bulls may consider MSTR20250829C360 into a bounce above $355.15, while bears should watch for a breakdown below $340.