MSTR's Bitcoin Bet Ranks 22nd in $2.92B Volume as Buy Rating Faces Volatility Risks

On August 27, 2025, Strategy (MSTR) traded with a 2.65% decline, closing with a volume of $2.92 billion, ranking 22nd in the day’s market activity. The stock remains under scrutiny as it navigates a volatile trading environment linked to its Bitcoin-focused corporate strategy.

Analyst Joe Vafi of Canaccord Genuity reiterated a “Buy” rating for Strategy, maintaining a $464 price target despite a 13% monthly drop in the stock. The recommendation hinges on the company’s trailblazing approach to Bitcoin accumulation, which has grown its holdings to approximately 632,457 BTC—about 3% of the total supply—through preferred stock offerings. These capital-raising initiatives, including perpetual and variable-rate preferred shares, have raised over $6 billion this year to fund Bitcoin purchases, reflecting a long-term bet on cryptocurrency’s macroeconomic role.

However, the strategy has led to a 40% dilution of shareholder value since 2023 due to repeated equity issuances. Vafi’s optimism contrasts with structural risks, such as Bitcoin’s price volatility and liquidity constraints tied to perpetual equity reliance. While the firm’s leverage ratio remains at 20-30% with 12x Bitcoin collateral coverage, critics highlight the potential for forced liquidity events or dividend pressures. Investors are advised to weigh these factors against the potential for outsized returns if Bitcoin continues its upward trajectory.

The back-test framework outlined for Strategy’s performance evaluation requires defining parameters such as universe scope, volume metrics, execution conventions, and transaction cost assumptions. The test will run from January 3, 2022, to August 27, 2025, to assess historical returns based on these criteria.