MSTR's 5.34% Surge: A Regulatory Reprieve Ignites Market Optimism

Summary
• Strategy (MSTR) surges 6% in after-hours trading following MSCI's decision to retain digital asset treasury firms in its indexes.
• Bitcoin BTC rallies 1% to $93,500 amid renewed institutional confidence in crypto-linked equities.
• Intraday price hits $167.54, a 5.34% gain from $157.97, with turnover at 3.72 million shares.

Strategy’s stock has staged a dramatic reversal in post-market hours, driven by MSCI’s pivotal announcement. The index provider’s decision to maintain current treatment of digital asset treasury companies (DATs) has alleviated immediate exclusion risks for MSTR, which holds over 50% of its assets in Bitcoin. With the stock trading near its 52-week high of $457.22, the move underscores the fragile balance between regulatory scrutiny and institutional crypto adoption.

MSCI's Index Decision Averts Exclusion Crisis for MSTR
MSCI’s announcement to retain DATs in its global indexes has directly lifted MSTR’s shares, which had been under pressure due to fears of institutional divestment. The index provider acknowledged the complexity of distinguishing between investment firms and non-operating entities holding digital assets but deferred rule changes for now. This reprieve removes the immediate threat of exclusion, which could have triggered a sell-off as institutional investors rebalance portfolios. Analysts note that while the decision is a short-term win, MSCI’s broader consultation on non-operating companies leaves room for future regulatory shifts.

Options Playbook: High-Leverage Contracts and Technical Catalysts
• 200-day average: $318.78 (well below current price); RSI: 46.33 (neutral); MACD: -11.46 (bearish divergence).
• Bollinger Bands: Upper at $188.30, Middle at $165.63, Lower at $142.96 (price near upper band).

Key levels to monitor include the 30-day support zone ($157.88–$158.62) and the 200-day resistance ($364.72–$370.79). While the RSI suggests equilibrium, the bearish MACD and long-term downtrend in moving averages indicate caution. Aggressive bulls may consider MSTR20260116C155 (strike $155, expiration 1/16/2026) for leveraged exposure, while MSTR20260116P150 (strike $150) offers downside protection.

MSTR20260116C155
• Code: MSTR20260116C155
• Type: Call
• Strike Price: $155
• Expiration: 2026-01-16
• IV: 66.09% (moderate)
• Leverage Ratio: 11.64% (high)
• Delta: 0.7632 (moderate)
• Theta: -0.7522 (high time decay)
• Gamma: 0.0169 (moderate sensitivity)
• Turnover: 661,577 (liquid)

This call option offers 73.72% potential payoff if MSTR reaches $174.73 (5% upside from $166.415). Its high leverage and moderate delta make it ideal for a bullish breakout above $167.54 (intraday high).

MSTR20260116P150
• Code: MSTR20260116P150
• Type: Put
• Strike Price: $150
• Expiration: 2026-01-16
• IV: 76.24% (high)
• Leverage Ratio: 82.81% (high)
• Delta: -0.1849 (moderate)
• Theta: -0.1422 (moderate decay)
• Gamma: 0.0127 (moderate sensitivity)
• Turnover: 92,172 (liquid)

This put provides 58.75% potential payoff if MSTR dips to $145.89 (5% downside). Its high leverage and liquidity make it a strategic hedge against a pullback to the 30-day support zone.

Hook: Aggressive bulls may consider MSTR20260116C155 into a bounce above $167.54.

Backtest Strategy Stock Performance
The backtest of MicroStrategy (MSTR) after a 5% intraday increase from 2022 to the present shows favorable performance metrics. The 3-day win rate is 54.30%, the 10-day win rate is 55.94%, and the 30-day win rate is 55.74%, indicating that the stock tends to perform well in the short term following the intraday surge. The maximum return during the backtest period was 20.21%, which occurred on day 59, suggesting that there is potential for significant gains but with varying degrees of success across different time frames.

Bullish Momentum and Strategic Options Play: What's Next for MSTR?
The immediate outlook for MSTR hinges on its ability to sustain momentum above $167.54 (intraday high) and avoid a retest of the 30-day support at $157.88. While the RSI suggests equilibrium, the bearish MACD and long-term downtrend in moving averages caution against over-optimism. Sector leader Microsoft (MSFT) rose 1.10% today, signaling broader tech resilience. Investors should watch MSCI’s broader consultation on non-operating companies and Bitcoin’s price action for further catalysts. Action: Aggressive bulls may consider MSTR20260116C155 into a breakout above $167.54, while hedging with MSTR20260116P150 to protect against a pullback.