MSTR's $3.8B Surge (14th in Volume) Fuels S&P 500 Inclusion Hopes as Bitcoin Strategy Gains Momentum

On September 2, 2025, Strategy (MSTR) rose 2.16% with a trading volume of $3.8 billion, ranking 14th in market activity. The stock’s performance is closely tied to its potential inclusion in the S&P 500 index, driven by its $96.84 billion market cap and recent financial results. The company reported $14 billion in operating income and a 70% year-over-year increase in subscription services revenue, partly attributed to new accounting standards that allow recognition of unrealized gains on its $70 billion Bitcoin holdings.

Analysts speculate that Strategy could be added to the S&P 500 during the September 2025 rebalance, following its strong Q2 performance. The firm’s Bitcoin treasury strategy, which includes acquiring 4,048 BTC for $449 million in late August, has bolstered its balance sheet. If included, passive index funds would be obligated to purchase MSTR shares, potentially amplifying demand for both the stock and Bitcoin. This aligns with broader market expectations for institutional exposure to crypto through equity vehicles.

Strategy’s inclusion would make it the third major crypto-related firm in the S&P 500, joining Coinbase and Block. The company’s financials, including a 19.7% Bitcoin yield year-to-date and $10 billion in net income, highlight its strategic shift toward Bitcoin as a core asset. However, recent volatility in MSTR’s stock price—down 15% over the past month—suggests mixed investor sentiment ahead of a potential announcement. Analysts remain bullish, with a consensus price target of $552.29 per share, indicating 65% upside from current levels.

Historical data suggests that S&P 500 additions often see short-term price increases of 3-5% due to passive fund inflows. Strategy’s inclusion could trigger similar dynamics, given its size and sectoral uniqueness. The firm’s Bitcoin holdings, representing over 3% of the total supply, further position it to benefit from broader crypto market trends. Institutional adoption and regulatory clarity remain critical factors for sustained momentum.

Over the past 12 months, MSTR’s stock has gained 173%, driven by its Bitcoin strategy and operational restructuring. Fourteen analysts cover the stock, with 12 issuing "Buy" ratings and one "Strong Buy." Options and futures activity is expected to rise ahead of any official inclusion announcement, reflecting heightened speculative interest. The firm’s financial resilience and alignment with macro trends underscore its appeal to investors seeking exposure to both tech and crypto markets.