MSFT Options Signal Bullish Breakout Potential: Target $500–$585 with RSI Oversold Setup

• MSFT surges 1.1% to $488.55, trading near 200D resistance at $469.79 and 30D support at $477.72.
• Call open interest dominates with 5623 contracts at $500 (this Friday) and 26,563 at $585 (next Friday), vs. put OI at $475 ($5079) and $460 ($9824).
• RSI at 34 suggests oversold conditions, while Azure’s $50B+ revenue and AI expansion fuel bullish momentum.

The stock is primed for a breakout—options data and technicals align on a sharp rally toward $500–$585, but watch for short-term profit-taking near $490.62 (intraday high).Bullish Options & Block Trade Signals

The options market is betting big on MSFT’s upside. This Friday’s $500 call (MSFT20251212C500) has 5,623 open contracts, and next Friday’s $585 call (MSFT20251219C585) dwarfs competition with 26,563 OI. That’s not just noise—it’s a vote of confidence in Microsoft’s AI-driven momentum. Meanwhile, the $475 put (MSFT20251212P475) with 5,079 OI acts as a floor, but the put/call ratio of 0.64 (calls > puts) suggests downside protection is secondary to the bullish narrative.

Block trades add intrigue. A $300K block of MSFT20251031P510 puts (expiring Oct 31) hints at hedging by large players, while a 600-lot sale of MSFT20250926P490 puts (expiring Sept 26) suggests short-term bearish positioning. But these older expirations matter less than the current $500–$585 call frenzy.

News-Driven Tailwinds

Microsoft’s Q4 results are the rocket fuel here. $58.5B in revenue, a $10B share buyback, and a $2.3B AI acquisition show the company is doubling down on growth. The Azure cloud’s 22% YoY revenue jump and global expansion into 20+ countries validate the bullish options bets. Even the new Surface Laptop 10 and Xbox Game Pass Plus aren’t just product wins—they’re signals that Microsoft is capturing market share in high-margin sectors.

But here’s the catch: RSI at 34 means a rebound is likely, but a break below $484.38 (intraday low) could trigger short-term profit-taking. The key is whether the $490.62 intraday high holds as a pivot point.

Actionable Trade IdeasOptions Play: Buy MSFT20251212C500 (this Friday’s $500 call) if MSFT holds $488.50. Target $515–$530 (5–7% move) before Friday’s close. For a longer play, MSFT20251219C585 (next Friday’s $585 call) offers leverage if the rally accelerates.Stock Play: Enter MSFT near $488.50 with a stop-loss below $484.38. First target: $500 (30D support-turned-resistance). Second target: $516.98 (Bollinger Upper Band). If it breaks $500, re-enter at $505 with a stop at $500.Volatility on the Horizon

The next 72 hours will test MSFT’s resolve. A close above $490.62 could trigger a surge toward $508.32 (200D resistance), where the $10B buyback and Azure growth story collide. But don’t ignore the $475–$480 put OI—it’s a psychological floor. If MSFT dips there, the puts could spark a rebound. Either way, the options market has already priced in a bullish outcome. The question isn’t if Microsoft will move—it’s how fast.