MSFT Options Signal Bullish Bias: Key Strikes and Block Trades Point to Strategic Entry Zones

• Microsoft’s Q4 2025 revenue hit $58.5B, with Azure up 23%
• Options market shows 0.525 put/call OI imbalance, heavy call interest at $430–$500
• Block trades bought 4,520 MSFT20260320C420 calls ahead of March expiry

Here’s the takeaway: Microsoft’s options market is leaning bullish, with oversold technicals and a record-breaking quarter creating a setup where a rebound could clash with heavy call open interest. Let’s break down why this matters for traders today.

Bullish Sentiment in Options and Block Trades

The options chain tells a story of cautious optimism. For this Friday’s expiry, calls at $430–$500 dominate open interest, while puts cluster at $390–$370. That’s a clear tilt toward upside bets. The put/call ratio of 0.525 (calls outweighing puts by nearly 2:1) reinforces this bias. But don’t ignore the risks: the RSI at 29 suggests oversold conditions, and the MACD (-17.45) still trends lower. A breakout above $401.31 (today’s high) could trigger a rally into call-heavy zones.

Block trades add intrigue. The MSFT20260320C420 call (4,520 contracts bought) and MSFT20260320P400 put (450 contracts) hint at positioning for a mid-March rebound. Big players are hedging or preparing for a rally, which could amplify volatility as March approaches.

News Flow Fuels the Narrative

Microsoft’s recent headlines are a mixed bag. The $50B buyback and $2.1B AI acquisition scream confidence, while the Surface Laptop 10 launch targets consumer growth. But the cloud exec resignation introduces a sliver of uncertainty. Here’s the kicker: the options data assumes the AI and cloud momentum will outweigh leadership noise. If Azure’s 23% growth continues, the $430–$500 call strikes could act as a gravity well for buyers.

Actionable Trade Ideas

For options traders, the most compelling plays are:

• MSFT20260206C430 (this Friday’s $430 call): Buy if MSFT breaks above $401.31. The strike sits at the edge of the Bollinger Band range (lower band at $399.53), and a close above $401 could trigger a rally into heavy call OI.
• MSFT20260213C520 (next Friday’s $520 call): A longer-term bet if the rebound holds. The high OI here (8,485 contracts) suggests a potential liquidity trap for sellers if the stock surges.

For stock traders, consider:

• Entry near $399.53 (lower Bollinger Band) with a target at $410 (30D MA at $462.14 is a distant ceiling). A breakdown below $392.92 (today’s low) would invalidate the bullish case.
• Short-term scalp: Buy on a retest of $401.31 with a tight stop below $399.53. The 30D support/resistance range (486.13–488.02) is too far out to matter today.

Volatility on the Horizon

The next 72 hours will test Microsoft’s resolve. A close above $401.31 could trigger a rally into the $430–$500 call OI cluster, creating a short-term overbought scenario. But don’t get greedy—those 30D and 200D moving averages ($462.14 and $486.73) are psychological hurdles. If the stock stalls there, the puts at $390–$370 will gain relevance. For now, the data says upside potential outweighs downside risk, but keep an eye on that leadership reshuffle. In trading, confidence is key—but so is caution.