MSFT Options Signal Bullish Bias: Key Strikes and Block Trades Point to Strategic Entry Zones

• MSFT trades at $480.79, slightly below its 200-day moving average of $469.46, with RSI at 37.35 hinting at oversold conditions.
• Options data shows heavy call open interest at $485 and $500 strikes, while puts dominate at $470–$475, creating a tight battle zone.
• Block trades reveal a $300K put sale at the $510 strike and a $93K put block at $490, suggesting institutional hedging or positioning.

Here’s the takeaway: MSFT is teetering between short-term bearish momentum and long-term bullish fundamentals, with options activity painting a clear roadmap for traders. The stock’s 0.01% dip today masks a deeper tug-of-war—let’s break it down.

The Options Imbalance: A Playbook for Breakouts

The options market is whispering a story of cautious optimism. For this Friday’s expiration, call open interest peaks at $485 (OI: 11,232) and $500 (OI: 11,267), while puts cluster at $470 (OI: 6,376) and $475 (OI: 4,550). This isn’t just noise—it’s a setup. High call OI at $485 suggests traders are bracing for a rebound off key support (477.7–479.1), while the $500 strike acts as a psychological magnet. The put-heavy zone below $475, meanwhile, warns of potential downside if the 200-day MA ($469.46) breaks.

Block trades add intrigue. A $300K trade at MSFT20251031P510 (expiring Oct 31) and a $93K sale at MSFT20250926P490 hint at large players either hedging against a rally or quietly accumulating puts for a deeper pullback. Combine this with a put/call ratio of 0.63 (favoring calls) and you’ve got a recipe for a bullish breakout—if volume cooperates.

News That Could Tip the Scales

Microsoft’s recent headlines are a mixed bag. The AI-driven 365 upgrades and price hikes (effective July 2026) signal long-term confidence, but the recent 1.51% price drop and Rollins Financial’s 3.8% stake reduction add short-term friction. The shareholder meeting’s rejection of ESG proposals is a double-edged sword: it removes regulatory headwinds but raises questions about ethical governance. Analysts remain split, with a $634.33 average target—a 30% upside from current levels—but that’s contingent on AI/cloud growth outpacing expectations.

Actionable Trades: Where to Play the Setup

For options traders, the MSFT20251205C485 (this Friday’s $485 call) is a high-conviction play. If the stock holds above $479.11 (30D support), this strike could catch a rebound. For longer-term positioning, the MSFT20251212C490 (next Friday’s $490 call) offers leverage if the 30D MA ($502.58) reclaims control.

Stock traders should consider entries near $479.11 (support) with a stop below $477.72. A successful rebound could target $490–$502.58, aligning with the call-heavy zones. Conversely, a break below $466.07 (lower Bollinger Band) would validate the bear case, making MSFT20251212P470 a defensive put to cap losses.

Volatility on the Horizon

The coming days will test MSFT’s resolve. A close above $483.40 (intraday high) could reignite bullish momentum, while a sustained drop below $478.88 would invite more puts into the mix. Either way, the options data and technicals agree: this stock is at a crossroads. Play the probabilities—back the bulls with calls at $485–$490, or hedge with puts at $470–$475. The AI train isn’t stopping, but the tracks are still being laid.