MSFT Options Signal Bullish Bias: Key Strikes and Block Trades Point to $500+ Target

• MSFT trades at $485.19, down 0.52% from yesterday’s close
• Call open interest dominates at $500–$505 strikes for Friday expiration
• Block trades hint at large players hedging or betting on a $500+ move

Here’s the thing: Microsoft’s options market is screaming bullish right now. Calls at the $500–$505 level have 9,164 open contracts combined—nearly double the put activity at $470. Meanwhile, technicals show the stock is perched near its 30-day moving average, with RSI hovering at 54.38. This isn’t just noise—it’s a setup. Let’s break it down.

Bullish Sentiment Locked in OTM Calls, Block Trades Add Fuel

The options chain tells a clear story: traders are pricing in a sharp move above $500. For Friday’s expiration, the $500 call (MSFT20260102C500) has 5,047 open contracts—more than any other strike. That’s not just retail FOMO; it’s institutional positioning. The $505 call (MSFT20260102C505) adds another 4,117 contracts, creating a wall of liquidity just below $500.

But here’s the twist: the put market isn’t entirely bearish. The $470 put (MSFT20260102P470) has 2,910 open contracts, suggesting some hedging against a drop below $470. The block trade on MSFT20251031P510 (a $510 put expiring Oct 31) with $300k turnover is also intriguing. It could mean a whale is hedging a long position or betting on a short-term pullback before the $500 level.

No Recent News, But Options Are the Story

There’s no major news in the last week to explain this setup. Microsoft’s last earnings were months ago, and no product launches are imminent. That means the options activity is the market’s own narrative. When there’s no fundamental catalyst, options data becomes the lens through which we read sentiment. The call-heavy open interest suggests traders are pricing in a breakout—whether from earnings, AI adoption, or macro-driven rotation into tech.

Actionable Trades: Calls for Friday, Stock Breakouts

For options traders:

• Aggressive play: Buy the MSFT20260102C500 call if the stock breaks above $488.35 (intraday high). The $500 strike is just 3% away, and the open interest suggests liquidity to carry it further.
• Conservative play: Sell the MSFT20260102P470 put if the stock holds above $478.21 (30-day support). The put has 2,910 contracts—enough to create a bid if the stock dips.

For stock traders:

• Entry near $484.18 (intraday low) if the 30-day support at $478.21 holds. Target $490 first (middle Bollinger Band), then $500 (call-heavy zone).
• Stop-loss below $478.21 to protect against a breakdown into the 200-day range.

Volatility on the Horizon

The next 72 hours will be critical. If MSFT closes above $488.35, the $500 call-heavy zone becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. But if it falls below $478.21, the put market at $470 could trigger a short-term rebound. Either way, the options data shows a clear bias—and the market is pricing in a move. This isn’t just a technical setup; it’s a psychological one. The question isn’t if Microsoft will move—it’s how fast.