MSFT Options Signal Bullish Bias: Key Strikes and Block Trades Point to $500+ Target

• MSFT trades at $478.61, down 1%—trapped between 30D and 200D moving averages.
• Call open interest dominates (put/call ratio: 0.65)—next Friday’s $500 call is the most watched.
• Block trades hint at big money hedging or positioning above $490.

Here’s the takeaway: MSFT’s options market is whispering bullishness, with heavy call buying and block trades clustering near $500. But the stock’s short-term bearish bias means timing—and caution—matter.

What the Options Chain Reveals About Market Sentiment

Let’s start with the elephant in the room: call options are winning. For this Friday’s expiration, the $495 and $490 calls lead in open interest, while next Friday’s $500 and $585 calls dwarf put activity. That’s not just noise—it’s a vote of confidence. Traders are pricing in a potential rebound above $500, possibly fueled by broader tech-sector rotation or earnings optimism (even if no news pops up yet).

But don’t ignore the puts. The $475 put (OI: 5,340) acts like a guardrail. If MSFT breaks below $476.36 (today’s intraday low), that strike could see a rush of buyers. And here’s the twist: block trades add intrigue. A 200-lot of the MSFT20251031P510 put (expiring Oct 31) and a 600-lot sale of the MSFT20250926P490 put suggest big players are either hedging or cleaning up old positions. The $510 put block, in particular, hints at off-market pressure near that level.

No Major News, But Options Tell a Story

The lack of recent headlines means the market is operating on technical triggers and macro sentiment. Without earnings or product announcements to anchor trades, options activity becomes the narrative. Think of it like a chess game: if no one’s moving the pieces publicly, the options market shows who’s betting on which squares.

This matters because perception becomes reality in stocks. Even if Microsoft isn’t making news, the options data suggests investors are pricing in a rebound. That self-fulfilling prophecy could push the stock higher—especially if institutional buyers start scooping up calls near $500.

Actionable Trade Ideas for MSFT

For options traders, the most compelling plays are:

• This Friday: Buy the MSFT20251219C490 if MSFT holds above $482.85 (30D support). A break above $495 could ignite momentum.
• Next Friday: Go all-in on the MSFT20251219C500. With OI at 24,517, this strike is the gravitational center for bullish bets. Target a 5%-+ move if the stock closes above $505.

For stock traders, consider:

• Entry near $482.85 (support level) with a stop below $476.36. If it holds, aim for $495 (resistance) as a first target.
• Bearish hedge: Buy the MSFT20251219P475 if the price drops below $476.36. It’s a cheaper insurance policy than the deeper puts.

Volatility on the Horizon

The key question isn’t whether MSFT will move—it’s when. With call OI stacking up near $500 and puts guarding $475, the stock is teetering on a knife’s edge. If the 200-day moving average ($471.47) breaks, the bear case gains steam. But if bulls reclaim $487.22 (Bollinger middle band), the path to $500+ opens.

Bottom line: MSFT is a setup stock. The options market is pricing in a directional move, but the stock needs a catalyst—whether it’s macro-driven or a surprise from Redmond. Stay ready, and let the options data guide your entries.