MSFT Options Signal Bullish Bias: Key Strikes and Block Trades Point to $490 Target

• MSFT trades at $477.90, showing 0.32% gains with volume surging past 7.6M shares.
• Options OI favors calls (put/call ratio: 0.66) with heavy concentration at $500 and $490 strikes.
• Block trades hint at hedging activity: 600 puts sold at $490 and a $300K put block at $510.

Here’s what the data tells us: Microsoft shows upside potential with technicals and options flow aligning toward a breakout above key resistance. Let’s break it down.

Bullish OI Clusters and Whale Moves

Options market sentiment isn’t just skewed to the upside—it’s anchored there. This Friday’s open interest peaks at $500 calls (OI: 24,765) and $450 puts (OI: 10,961), creating a tight battle zone around $475–$485. The next Friday’s data sharpens this focus: $490 calls (OI: 3,667) and $450 puts (OI: 3,552) suggest traders are pricing in a directional move before the December expiry.

But it’s the block trades that tell a bigger story. A 600-contract sale of MSFT20250926P490 (puts expiring mid-December) signals hedging by large holders. Meanwhile, a $300K block of MSFT20251031P510 (October 31 puts) hints at off-market positioning—possibly Microsoft itself managing risk ahead of earnings or product cycles.

Technical Setup: A Ranging Stock with Breaking Legs

Microsoft isn’t trading in a vacuum. Its 200-day MA at $472.73 is currently a support floor, while the 30-day MA ($490.51) looms as resistance. Price action is stuck between these two levels, but the options data suggests a push higher. The RSI at 49.6 and MACD near zero confirm this equilibrium—but the histogram’s slight positive tilt means momentum could tip.

Actionable Trade Ideas

For options traders, the most compelling setup is the MSFT20251226C490 call (next Friday expiry). At $477.90, this strike offers ~3.4% leverage if Microsoft closes above $490. Why not the $500 calls? They’re too far out (OI: 3,228) to justify the premium. The $490 strike balances probability and reward.

For stock players, consider entries near $478.03 (30D support) with a hard stop below $475.22 (today’s low). The first target is $490 (30D MA), followed by $508 (100D MA). If the move stalls, the 200D MA at $472.73 could offer a second-chance entry.

Volatility on the Horizon

Microsoft’s story isn’t just about numbers—it’s about positioning. The options market is pricing in a $475–$490 range battle, but block trades suggest smart money is bracing for a breakout. If the $490 level cracks, the 30D MA could become a springboard to retest the 100D MA at $508. Conversely, a close below $475.22 would validate the short-term bearish K-line pattern.

The key takeaway? Microsoft isn’t just trading—it’s positioning. And right now, the odds favor bulls with a clear roadmap to $490.