MSFT Options Signal Bullish Bias: Key Strike Levels and Trade Setups for Dec 19–26 Expirations

• Jefferies raised MSFT’s price target to $675, citing OpenAI stakes and India’s $17.5B AI/cloud push.
• Block trades show $300K put block and 600 contracts sold at $490, hinting at strategic positioning.
• Options data: 0.66 put/call OI ratio, heavy call OI at $500–$510, and puts clustered at $450–$460.

Here’s what the data tells us: MSFT’s price action and options flow suggest a cautious bullish tilt. While the stock trades near its 200D MA ($472.29), the options market is pricing in a higher probability of a rebound above $480—especially with next Friday’s $510 call OI surging. But don’t ignore the $460–$467 support zone; a breakdown could trigger panic.The Options Imbalance and Whale Moves

The options chain is a mixed bag. This Friday’s $500 call (OI: 24,894) and $510 call (OI: 3,478 next Friday) are the most watched, showing heavy demand for upside hedges. Meanwhile, puts at $450 (OI: 10,717) and $460 (OI: 11,671) act as a safety net for bears. The 0.66 put/call OI ratio isn’t screamingly bullish, but it’s skewed toward buyers—especially with those $500+ call strikes loaded.

Then there’s the block trade drama. A $300K block of MSFT20251031P510 puts (expiring Oct 31) and a 600-contract sell block at MSFT20250926P490 (Sep 26 expiry) suggest big players are managing risk or locking in profits. Think of it like a chess move: they’re not betting on a crash, but they’re hedging just in case.

News That Could Shift the Script

Microsoft’s AI bets are the real story. The $80B capex for FY25 and a $5B Anthropic investment show they’re all-in on AI infrastructure. Analysts love it—JPMorgan’s $639 target isn’t just optimism; it’s math. But here’s the catch: if AI regulation tightens or OpenAI’s revenue falls short, those $500+ calls could get crushed. The stock’s 5% dip over two weeks already reflects some of that risk.

Actionable Trade Setups

For options players:

• Bullish Play: Buy MSFT20251219C480 (this Friday’s $480 call). Why? It’s just above the 200D MA and has 17,875 OI. If MSFT holds $470.88 (intraday low), this could pop.
• Bearish Hedge: Buy MSFT20251219P460 (this Friday’s $460 put). With 11,671 OI, it’s a liquid way to protect against a breakdown below $467.08 (lower BB).

For stock traders:

• Entry Near $478.40–$479.30 (30D support/resistance). If MSFT closes above $475.19 (intraday high), target $484.22 (middle BB) as a short-term ceiling.
• Stop-Loss Below $470.88. A drop here would validate the bearish Kline pattern and test the $460–$467 support.

Volatility on the Horizon

The next two weeks are critical. If MSFT cracks $460, the puts will dominate. But if it holds $472.29 (200D MA) and surges past $484.22, the $500–$510 calls could become fireworks. Either way, the options market is pricing in a directional move—just pick your side before Friday’s expiry. Stay nimble; this stock isn’t sleeping.