MSFT Options Signal $500 Bullish Bias: Trade Setup for AI-Driven Breakout

• Wedbush just set a $625 price target for Microsoft, citing Azure’s AI growth
• Options market shows 7143 open calls at $500 strike vs 3855 puts at $470
• Satya Nadella is now directly managing AI product teams to accelerate execution

Here’s the deal: Microsoft’s options market is painting a clear picture. With the stock trading at $488.88, the $500 call strike is a gravitational pull for bulls. But the real story is how this aligns with Satya Nadella’s hands-on AI push and Wedbush’s aggressive $625 target. Let’s break it down.

Bullish Pressure at $500 and the Shadow of Block Trades

If you look at this Friday’s options chain, the MSFT20251226C500 call has 7,143 open contracts—the highest of any strike. That’s not random. It means a lot of money is betting Microsoft will punch through $500 before expiration. The RSI at 58.16 and Bollinger Bands suggest the stock has room to run before hitting the upper band at $494.41.

But don’t ignore the puts. The MSFT20251226P470 put has 3,855 open contracts, hinting some players are hedging against a pullback. And here’s the kicker: there was a $300,000 block trade in the MSFT20251031P510 put last month. That could mean big players are quietly buying protection against a short-term dip while still expecting the long-term AI story to play out.

Why Nadella’s Move and Wedbush’s Target Matter

Satya taking direct control of AI product development isn’t just a management tweak—it’s a signal. Microsoft is all-in on AI, and Nadella’s weekly engineer meetings and aggressive hiring show they’re fixing execution gaps. Wedbush’s $625 target isn’t just a number; it’s based on Azure’s projected AI revenue surge and multi-year infrastructure deals.

The options market agrees. With a put/call ratio of 0.7 for open interest, bulls are clearly in charge. But here’s the catch: the 200D moving average at $475.016 is a critical support level. If Microsoft dips below that, the $470–$472 Bollinger Band floor becomes a battleground.

Actionable Trade Ideas for MSFT

For options players:

• Aggressive Play: Buy MSFT20251226C500 calls this Friday. If Microsoft hits $495, these could pop.
• Cautious Play: Buy MSFT20260102C510 next Friday. The $510 strike has 2,501 open contracts and gives more time for the AI narrative to unfold.

For stock traders:

• Entry: Consider buying near $484.83 (today’s low) if the 30D support at $478.36 holds.
• Target: Aim for $495–$500 as the first resistance cluster. If it breaks through, Wedbush’s $625 target becomes more than a fantasy.

Volatility on the Horizon

Microsoft isn’t just a tech stock—it’s a proxy for the AI revolution. The options data, block trades, and executive moves all point to a stock primed for a breakout. But don’t ignore the risks: a drop below $475 could trigger panic. For now, the AI story is strong enough to keep the bulls in control.

Bottom line: This is a stock where the fundamentals and options sentiment are in sync. If you’re positioned for a $500+ move, you’re betting on Microsoft’s—and maybe the entire AI sector’s—next chapter.