MRNA Plunges After FDA Rejects Flu Vaccine Trial Design

Why is MRNA stock dropping today?

Moderna (Nasdaq: MRNA) stock is sharply lower in pre-market trading, down nearly 8.5% to $38.42 after the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) rejected the company’s application for a new mRNA-based flu vaccine. The FDA cited concerns over the trial’s use of a comparator vaccine that does not meet current best standards. This regulatory hiccup is the primary driver of the overnight price reprice.

The rejection wasn’t due to safety or efficacy issues with the vaccine itself, according to the company, but rather methodological concerns about the trial design. Still, the news is a setback for Moderna’s pipeline and raises questions about its regulatory strategy in the near term.

The stock is now trading in the negative range after a significant gap down from its previous close of $41.995. With the move classified as an “overnight_reprice,” investors are watching how the broader market reacts. The Nasdaq futures are down slightly, while the S&P 500 and Dow futures are slightly higher, suggesting the move is stock-specific for now.

What’s next for MRNA stock after the rejection?

The FDA’s rejection introduces uncertainty for Moderna’s near-term regulatory calendar. The company’s stock has seen significant volatility in recent months, bouncing between a 60-day high of $55.2 and a low of $22.28. The current price is below both the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, placing it in a mean-reversion range.

Technical indicators like RSI and ATR suggest the stock is in a range-bound pattern, with a 3.72 ATR14 indicating moderate volatility. The nearest support and resistance levels are both at $38.0, just below the current price. A break below this level could trigger a stronger sell-off, while a bounce back above it would suggest a temporary correction rather than a deeper downturn.

Volume data also tells a story. While the price has moved significantly, the volume remains relatively low—well below the 60-day average. This suggests the move is not yet backed by strong conviction from institutional or large-cap investors. Without a surge in volume, the move could remain unconfirmed and subject to rapid reversal.

What to watch in the coming days

In the short term, the focus is on whether Moderna can stabilize its stock around $38.0. A break below that level would raise the risk of a faster retest of the 60-day low in the mid-$30s. On the flip side, a quick rebound back above $40 would indicate the rejection is a temporary setback rather than the start of a larger downtrend.

Looking at the broader context, the FDA’s actions under Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. have been more cautious toward mRNA vaccines. This could have longer-term implications for Moderna’s product approvals and strategic plans. Investors will be watching for any follow-up statements from the company or updated timelines for the vaccine.

For now, the key levels to watch for MRNA are the support and resistance at $38.0. Traders should be prepared for a choppy near-term move until either new data or regulatory clarity emerges.

Takeaway: The FDA’s rejection of Moderna’s flu vaccine application is the immediate catalyst. With volume yet to confirm the move, the stock remains in a fragile state. The next 48 hours will be critical in determining whether this is a short-term blip or the start of a deeper correction.