MPLX's Q3 2025: Contradictions Emerge on Data Center Power, Mid-Single-Digit Growth Strategies, and Permian Basin Integration

Guidance:

• Targeting mid-single-digit adjusted EBITDA growth for 2025 and beyond, with 2026 expected to exceed 2025.
• Expect 12.5% distribution increases for the next couple of years; coverage ratio not expected to fall below 1.3x.
• BANGL expansion to 300,000 bpd expected H2 2026; Secretariat processing plant online end of 2025.
• Titan amine treating capacity to expand to >400 MMcf/d by end of 2026; incremental EBITDA from BANGL and Titan expected in 2026.
• First Gulf Coast fractionation and LPG export dock expected in 2028 with full run-rate late 2029.
• Maintain leverage below 4x.

Business Commentary:

* Distribution Increase and EBITDA Growth: - MPLX LP increased its quarterly distribution by 12.5% for the second consecutive year, marking the fourth consecutive year of double-digit increases. - The increase is supported by a multiyear track record of mid-single-digit growth and conviction in future growth from recent capital deployments. - This growth is supported by strong performance, with MPLX generating adjusted EBITDA of $1.8 billion in Q3 2025, reflecting 4% growth over the prior year.

• Strategic Acquisitions and Full Ownership:
• MPLX closed on the acquisition of the remaining 55% interest in the BANGL NGL pipeline system, enhancing its Permian platform.
• The acquisition enables full ownership and expansion of the pipeline, expected to increase capacity to 300,000 barrels per day by the second half of 2026.

• The acquisition supports MPLX's strategic growth objectives by connecting growing NGL production from wellheads to its Gulf Coast fractionation facilities.

• Sour Gas Treating Expansion:

• MPLX acquired a Delaware Basin sour gas treating business and is expanding its sour gas treating capacity from 150 million cubic feet per day to over 400 million cubic feet per day expected by the end of 2026.
• This expansion is expected to drive returns by integrating newly acquired assets with existing operations and capitalize on additional growth opportunities.

• The expansion includes construction of a second amine treating plant at the Titan complex, which will increase sour gas treating capacity.

• Power and Gas Supply Agreement:

• MPLX entered into a Letter of Intent with MARA to supply natural gas and receive power as part of an effort to increase in-basin demand and lower costs for producer customers.
• This agreement is expected to provide lower-cost, reliable power to MPLX and its customers without significant capital investment.
• The agreement reflects MPLX's strategy to evaluate opportunities for data centers and AI, where gas supply is a critical component.
  

  Sentiment Analysis:

  Overall Tone: Positive

  • Maryann: "Delivering on our commitment to return capital, MPLX increased its quarterly distribution by 12.5%." "We generated adjusted EBITDA of $1.8 billion" "We do not expect MPLX's coverage ratio to fall below 1.3x." Management repeatedly emphasized project timelines, EBITDA growth and capital returns, signaling confidence.

Q&A:

• Question from John Mackay (Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., Research Division): I wanted to start on the EBITDA growth outlook... how you're thinking about the go-forward growth outlook now for EBITDA, both kind of level and duration relative to how you were framing up kind of the similar target of mid-single-digit EBITDA growth at the beginning of the year before we had some of these announcements.
  Response: 2026 should deliver stronger EBITDA growth than 2024–25, driven by additive contributions from BANGL ownership, Secretariat, Preakness II, Titan and other projects, supporting mid-single-digit adjusted EBITDA growth.

• Question from John Mackay (Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., Research Division): Maybe just as a second question... a little bit more about the power LOI, steps to converting that, how we think about the opportunity set for you, returns, et cetera.
  Response: LOI with MARA is early-stage; MPLX would supply gas in exchange for lower-cost, reliable power passed to producers, and this is not expected to be a 2026 project.

• Question from Manav Gupta (UBS Investment Bank, Research Division): Can you elaborate a little more on the Permian sour gas opportunity? It's my understanding you do not need to permit more AGI wells to run this asset at full capacity because that's where the gating factor is.
  Response: $0.5 billion of incremental capital will enable the project economics (raising Titan from 150 to ~400 MMcf/d) and no additional AGI well is required to meet the outlined economics.

• Question from Manav Gupta (UBS Investment Bank, Research Division): As you evaluate all these data center opportunities, would there be more LOIs? Some peers are open to generating and selling electricity—could MPLX do that or prefer to supply gas only?
  Response: MPLX has the capability to co-locate and generate power but views generation as a separate business case; it will evaluate opportunities and keep options open while currently favoring providing gas and reliability solutions.

• Question from Theresa Chen (Barclays Bank PLC, Research Division): On the Titan complex integration, has there been any shift in commercial activity with your customers? Any incremental interest in your services now that you own the assets?
  Response: Integration is going well with ~150 MMcf/d processing at quarter end, positive customer feedback, and potential to accelerate processing growth under existing contract structures with full benefits expected by end-2026.

• Question from Theresa Chen (Barclays Bank PLC, Research Division): Regarding the MARA LOI, can you frame the nature of potential CapEx, what positions you to win this, and next steps?
  Response: LOI likely requires low or no incremental CapEx—MPLX would provide gas at plant tailpipes to secure lower-cost power and boost in-basin demand; next steps are continued evaluation and negotiation.

• Question from Burke Sansiviero (Wolfe Research, LLC): Walk through assumptions for in-basin demand growth and incremental takeaway capacity to underwrite the 10% Marcellus and Utica gas growth through 2030; do you expect new greenfield pipelines?
  Response: Growth is underwritten by incremental plant construction (e.g., Harmon Creek III), filling existing Utica capacity, rising in-basin demand (power/data centers) and improved takeaway (MVP/debottlenecking), not reliance solely on greenfield pipelines.

• Question from Burke Sansiviero (Wolfe Research, LLC): As you build out the Permian position, do you have visibility on filling the full 300,000 barrels per day on BANGL with NGLs from your own plants?
  Response: Yes—visibility to fill BANGL capacity via the seventh plant (Secretariat) plus connections from third-party production.

• Question from Jeremy Tonet (JPMorgan Chase & Co, Research Division): To achieve multiyear mid-single-digit EBITDA growth, will organic projects suffice or will inorganic initiatives be needed?
  Response: Both are important, but given MPLX's EBITDA scale, inorganic M&A is likely needed alongside organic projects to achieve mid-single-digit multiyear growth.

• Question from Jeremy Tonet (JPMorgan Chase & Co, Research Division): How should we think about the distribution growth policy over time after the two 12.5% raises?
  Response: Management sees a path to 12.5% distribution growth for the next couple of years; beyond that they will evaluate further.

• Question from Michael Blum (Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division): Are you actively evaluating bringing power to data center projects or is that a longer-term potential?
  Response: No active intent now—MPLX has capability and optionality to provide or enable power generation if economics and customer demand justify it in the future.

• Question from Michael Blum (Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division): How could lower crude oil prices impact your Crude Oil and Product Logistics segment?
  Response: Segment is well-insulated: volumes remain strong and contracts with Marathon include significant minimum volume commitments and capacity arrangements, limiting downside from lower crude prices.

Contradiction Point 1

Data Center Opportunities and Power Generation

It involves the company's potential for entering the power generation business, which could impact strategic direction and investment decisions.

Are there more LOIs in the pipeline for data center opportunities, and would MPLX consider generating and selling electricity? - Manav Gupta (UBS Investment Bank, Research Division)

2025Q3: MPLX has the capability to co-locate facilities and sell gas, potentially generating power. While we have the capability to generate power, it's a separate business case, and we'll keep all options open. - Gregory Floerke(COO)

Will you need to add capacity to your NGL pipelines, export docks, and other facilities to handle the increased volumes from Northwind? - Michael Jacob Blum (Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division)

2025Q2: We have the capability to provide power, but no active evaluations. We maintain optionality for future consideration if it makes sense. - Gregory Floerke(COO)

Contradiction Point 2

Mid-Single-Digit Growth and Inorganic Opportunities

It highlights differing commitments to achieving mid-single-digit growth through organic versus inorganic means, which could affect strategic focus and investor expectations.

Would organic growth alone drive mid-single-digit EBITDA growth, or are inorganic initiatives also needed? - Jeremy Tonet (JPMorgan Chase & Co, Research Division)

2025Q3: Organic growth opportunities are being executed, but to meet mid-single-digit growth, there will likely be a need for inorganic opportunities as well. MPLX will continue to evaluate both organic and inorganic opportunities to achieve growth. - Maryann Mannen(CEO)

How will you determine the Permian growth strategy over the next 2 to 3 years? - Manav Gupta (UBS Investment Bank)

2025Q2: The strategic acquisitions of assets like Titan, Northwind, and other businesses that we've made complement and expand our existing systems and create a platform for growth opportunity. - Maryann Mannen(CEO)

Contradiction Point 3

Permian Basin Assets Integration and Growth

It directly impacts expectations regarding the integration and growth potential of recently acquired assets, which could affect company performance and investor perceptions.

Can you explain the forward EBITDA growth outlook in terms of level and duration compared to your initial mid-single-digit EBITDA growth guidance at the start of the year prior to these announcements? - John Mackay (Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., Research Division)

2025Q3: Our 3-year EBITDA growth has been roughly 7%. Projects like BANGL, Secretariat, Preakness II, and Titan expansion are expected to add incremental EBITDA. Organic and inorganic projects slated for '27 and beyond support continued mid-single-digit growth. - Maryann Mannen(CEO)

Update on Permian Basin asset integration and final closing timeline? How do these assets enhance product portfolio and drive growth? - Devin McDermott (Morgan Stanley)

2024Q4: The integration of the Permian Basin assets is progressing well, with the final closing expected in early Q2 2024. The assets are expected to add around 100 MBbl/d of liquids production and 150 MMcf/d of natural gas production. The integration aligns well with our existing portfolio, enhancing our position in high-quality basins and providing opportunities for long-term growth. - Mike Strain(CEO)

Contradiction Point 4

Data Center Power Opportunity

It involves the potential for MPLX to enter the power generation business, which could impact strategic direction and investment decisions.

Is power delivery to data centers being evaluated, and is it a long-term potential? - Michael Blum(Wells Fargo Securities)

2025Q3: We have the capability to provide power, but no active evaluations. We maintain optionality for future consideration if it makes sense. - Gregory Floerke(COO)

Are there more LOIs in the pipeline for data center opportunities, and would MPLX consider generating and selling electricity? - Manav Gupta(UBS Investment Bank)

2025Q1: We have the capability to co-locate facilities and sell gas, potentially generating power. While we have the capability to generate power, it's a separate business case, and we'll keep all options open. - Gregory Floerke(COO)