MP Materials Stock Slides Despite Rare Earth Revenue Surge Ranks 189th in $520M Trading Volume

On September 4, 2025, MP Materials (MP) closed at $64.16, down 2.74% with a trading volume of $520 million, ranking 189th in market activity. The stock’s performance reflects ongoing strategic shifts and production dynamics within the rare earth sector.

MP reported a 283% year-over-year surge in neodymium and praseodymium (NdPr) revenues for Q2 2025, driven by a 226% increase in sales volume to 443 metric tons. The company’s decision to halt shipments of rare earth concentrate to China in April 2025, following retaliatory tariffs, has bolstered domestic NdPr oxide prices. This aligns with a July 2025 agreement to suspend all sales to China, aiming to establish a self-sufficient U.S. supply chain. Realized NdPr prices averaged $57 per kg in Q2 2025, up 19% year-over-year, with expectations of sustained pricing in Q3.

Production optimization at MP’s Mountain Pass mine in California, the U.S.’s sole high-purity NdPr oxide producer, has fueled output growth. The company anticipates higher Material segment revenues from increased production and sales volumes. However, risks remain, including execution challenges in expanding manufacturing facilities and reliance on government partnerships, which introduce political and financial uncertainties. Despite a 323% year-to-date stock surge, analysts caution that profitability hurdles and rare earth price volatility could temper long-term gains.

Backtest results indicate MP’s forward 12-month price-to-sales ratio stands at 22.90X, significantly higher than the industry average of 1.15X. Zacks Investment Research assigns a #2 (Buy) rank to MP, with consensus earnings estimates projecting a 2025 loss of $0.32 per share and a 2026 profit of $0.96 per share. The stock’s valuation and strategic positioning in the U.S. rare earth sector remain central to its near-term trajectory.