MP Materials Soars 5% on Intraday Surge Amid Geopolitical and Corporate Catalysts

Summary
• MP Materials (MP) surges 5.05% intraday, hitting a 52-week high of $72.35.
• Defense Department and Apple partnerships drive $400M and $500M investments, fueling expansion plans.
• Bank of America raises price target to $78, signaling 14% upside from current levels.

MP Materials is experiencing a dramatic intraday rally, driven by a confluence of geopolitical and corporate developments. The stock’s 5.05% surge to $70.92 reflects renewed investor confidence in the rare earths sector, bolstered by the Department of Defense’s $400M investment and Apple’s $500M magnet supply agreement. With the stock trading near its 52-week high, the move underscores the critical role of rare earths in global supply chain security and technological innovation.

Defense and Tech Alliances Ignite MP Materials' Intraday Rally
MP Materials’ intraday surge is directly tied to its transformative partnerships with the U.S. Department of Defense and Apple. The DOD’s $400M investment, including a warrant for 15% equity, and a 10-year offtake agreement with guaranteed pricing for neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) products, has secured long-term cash flow and operational certainty. Apple’s $500M magnet supply deal further validates MP’s strategic position in the rare earths supply chain, accelerating expansion at its Texas facility. These developments, combined with Bank of America’s upgraded price target to $78, have created a perfect storm of institutional and retail demand, propelling the stock to its 52-week high.

Rare Earth Sector Gains Momentum as MP Materials Outpaces Peers
The rare earth sector is witnessing a renaissance as global demand for critical minerals intensifies. MP Materials, the sector’s dominant player, has outperformed its peers, including Solvay and Vital Metals, by securing direct government and corporate backing. While Solvay focuses on recycling and EU supply chain diversification, MP’s DOD-backed 10X Facility and Apple partnership position it as the primary beneficiary of U.S. rare earths independence. The sector’s leveraged ETFs, such as VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF (REMX), have mirrored MP’s momentum, rising 2.98% alongside the stock’s rally.

Options and ETFs Highlight Bullish Momentum Amid Strategic Breakthroughs
• 200-day average: $26.68 (well below current price)
• RSI: 64.42 (neutral to overbought)
• MACD: 7.34 (bullish divergence from signal line at 7.49)
• Bollinger Bands: Upper at $72.59 (near 52-week high)

MP Materials’ technicals suggest a continuation of its bullish trend, supported by strong institutional buying and geopolitical tailwinds. Key levels to watch include the 52-week high at $72.35 and the 200-day average at $26.68. The VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF (REMX), up 2.98%, offers leveraged exposure to the sector’s momentum. For options, two contracts stand out:

• MP20250815C70 (Call, $70 strike, 8/15 expiration):
- IV: 83.43% (high volatility)
- Leverage ratio: 16.54% (moderate)
- Delta: 0.576 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.375 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.042 (high sensitivity to price movement)
- Turnover: $482,759 (high liquidity)
This call option is ideal for capitalizing on a short-term breakout above $70, with a projected payoff of $5.92 per share (5% upside from $70.92).

• MP20250815C71 (Call, $71 strike, 8/15 expiration):
- IV: 80.10% (high volatility)
- Leverage ratio: 19.48% (high)
- Delta: 0.533 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.358 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.044 (high sensitivity to price movement)
- Turnover: $146,264 (high liquidity)
This contract offers a 54% leverage ratio and high gamma, making it suitable for aggressive bulls targeting a push above $71. Projected payoff: $5.86 per share (5% upside).

Aggressive bulls may consider MP20250815C70 into a breakout above $70, while MP20250815C71 offers higher leverage for a sustained rally.

Backtest MP Materials Stock Performance
The backtest of Microsoft (MSFT) performance after an intraday surge of 5% reveals positive short-to-medium-term gains, with the 3-Day win rate at 51.09%, the 10-Day win rate at 54.29%, and the 30-Day win rate at 54.62%. The maximum return during the backtest period was 13.59% over 30 days, indicating that MSFT can maintain upward momentum after such an event.

MP Materials' Strategic Momentum Positions for Sustained Growth—Act Now
MP Materials’ intraday surge is underpinned by a rare alignment of geopolitical and corporate catalysts, positioning it as a cornerstone of U.S. rare earths independence. With the 10X Facility and Apple partnership driving long-term demand, the stock’s technicals and options activity suggest continued upward momentum. Investors should monitor the 52-week high at $72.35 and the 200-day average at $26.68 as critical levels. The sector leader Newmarket (NEU), up 0.03%, highlights the broader industry’s resilience. For immediate action, consider MP20250815C70 for a short-term breakout or MP20250815C71 for aggressive leverage. Watch for a sustained close above $72.35 to confirm the next phase of growth.